بررسی آینده‌پژوهی حضور ناتو در خاورمیانه و محیط پیرامونی ایران و تأثیر آن بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی-پژوهشی مستخرج از طرح پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیات علمی گروه حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قشم، قشم، ایران.

2 دانش آموخته دکتری روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران- اصفهان، ایران.

3 دانش آموخته دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

ناتو از جمله سازمان‌های بین‌المللی امنیت دسته‌جمعی و نظامی است. با فروپاشی شوروی ، ناتو فسلفه وجودی خود را از دست داد، ولی بحران‌های بین‌المللی از جمله جنگ‌های خلیج فارس، بحران کوزوو و... موجب شد در سال 1997، رسما هدف خود را ایجاد صلح و امنیت در جهان معرفی نماید و بر طبق آن به فرآیند گسترش خود به شرق بپردازد. جنگ‌های 2001 افغانستان و 2003 عراق، ناتو را علاوه بر ترکیه، در این مناطق با ایران نیز همسایه کرد، همچنین ناتو با دیگر همسایگان ایران شروع به همکاری گسترده نمود. حال، سوال اصلی پژوهش آن است که «با توجه به سیاست گسترش به شرق ناتو، انواع سناریوهای رفتاری قابل پیش‌بینی این حضور در محیط پیرامونی ایران، برای امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران چیست؟» روش بررسی پژوهش روش‌های تحلیلی و سناریونویسی است و اطلاعات به صورت اسنادی جمع‌آوری شده است. نتیجه کلی نیز نشان می‌دهد که با توجه به تعمیق حضور ناتو در محیط پیرامونی جمهوری اسلامی ایران و این امر که آمریکا رهبری ناتو را بر عهده دارد، دارای روابط خصمانه با جمهوری اسلامی ایران است، سناریوهای قابل پیش‌بینی رفتار ناتو، طیفی از سناریوهای پرخطر، کم‌خطر و همکاری‌جویانه می‌باشد و میزان تهدیدها و فرصت‌های این سناریوها برای امنیت ملی ایران، وابسته به راهبردهایی است که سیاست خارجی ایران در برابر آن اتخاذ می‌کند، یعنی اینکه رفتاری تهدیدآمیز از خود نشان دهد و یا رفتاری تنش‌زدا، به علاوه اینکه ایران تا چه حد توانایی دارد تا انواع قدرت‌های خود را تقویت کند، در رفتار آینده ناتو با ایران مؤثر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Future of NATO Presence in the Middle East and the Surrounding Environment of Iran and Its Impact on the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Soheil Soheili najafabadi 1
  • Elham Hossein Khani 2
  • Hamed Amoui 3
1 Member of the Faculty of Law and Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Qeshm Branch, Qeshm, Iran
2 PhD . of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran-Isfahan, Iran.
3 PhD., of Political Science, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

NATO is one of the international organizations for collective and military security. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO lost its existential philosophy, but international crises including the Persian Gulf War and the Kosovo crisis and… led it in 1997 to formally announce its goal of world peace and security. The 2001 wars in Afghanistan and the 2003 wars in Iraq made NATO a neighbor of Iran in addition to Turkey, and NATO began to cooperate extensively with Iran's other neighbors. Now, the main question of the research is "Given the NATO’S policy of expanding to the east, what are the types of predictable behavioral scenarios of this presence in the environment of Iran for the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran?" The research method is analytical and scenario writing methods and the information has been collected in the form of documents. The overall result also shows that, given the deepening NATO presence in the periphery of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the fact that the United States is leading NATO, it has hostile relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Predictable scenarios of NATO’S behavior are a range of high-risk, low-risk, and cooperative scenarios, and the extent to which these scenarios pose threats and opportunities to Iran's national security depends on the strategies that Iran's foreign policy adopts. That is to say, threatening or de-escalating behavior, in addition to the extent in which Iran is able to strengthen its various powers, is influential in NATO's future treatment of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • NATO
  • Iran
  • Peripheral Areas
  • Middle East
  • National Security
  • Futures Studies

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