فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

همه‌گیری، معترضان، اصلاحات متناقض و اقتدارگرایایی ماندگار در خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسندگان
1 استاد دانشگاه ایالتی سانفرانسیسکو و مدرس دانشگاه برکلی
2 روابط بین الملل، مدیر گروه مطالعات خلیج فارس مرکز تحقیقات علمی و مطالعات استراتژیک خاورمیانه، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
همه‌گیری کووید-19 رژیم های خودکامه را تقویت کرده است. برخلاف کسانی که ادعا می‌کنند شیوع این بیماری باعث تسریع حرکت به سمت رقابت ژئوپلیتیکی بیشتر می‌شود، ما استدلال می‌کنیم که این بیماری همه‌گیر همکاری بیشتر بین دولت‌های دموکراتیک و اقتدارگرا را ضروری کرده است، بنابراین طول عمر دولت‌های دومی را افزایش می‌دهد. این امر، توضیح می‌دهد که چرا همه‌گیری جهانی هیچ تغییر اساسی در پویایی امنیت منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا (منا) ایجاد نکرده است، تا حدی به این دلیل که از قضا باعث طولانی شدن حکومت استبدادی در منطقه به نام تأمین سلامت عمومی شده است. علیرغم شعارهای کثرت گرایی مذهبی، اعتدال گرایی و همچنین اصلاحات قانون اساسی، احساسات منعکس کننده ناسیونالیسم محدود و خشن و پوپولیسم جناح راست به طور همزمان غالب شده است. در مقابل، استفاده مداوم از سرکوب در حکومت‌های استبداد آزاد شده در منطقه، خود را به شکل سرکوب معترضان در دوران سخت اقتصادی نشان داده است. به عنوان مثال، در اعتراضات علیه بیکاری در عمان در سال 2018 یا علیه اصلاحات مالیاتی در اردن در سال 2019، و در جریان ناآرامی‌های قطیف عربستان سعودی در سال‌های 2017-2020 یا در اعتراضات سیاسی جاری الجزایر، چنین الگوهای رفتاری قابل مشاهده بوده است. حتی در رژیم‌هایی که اصلاحات قانون اساسی را پس از خیزش‌های بهار عربی در سال 2011 انجام داده‌اند، زمانی که اولویت به مبارزه با یک بیماری همه‌گیر جهانی، اقتصاد در حال فروپاشی و سایر تهدیدات نوظهور مانند مبارزه با تروریسم داده شده است، رژیم‌های استبدادی زخمی شده‌اند. حاکمیت خود را تحکیم می کنند، بنابراین از چنین بحران هایی برای به دست آوردن قدرت بیشتر در داخل و جستجوی مزیت ژئوپلیتیکی در منطقه بهره برداری می کنند. با این حال، دست کم گرفتن احتمال فوران خود به خودی خیزش‌های مردمی که می‌تواند تهدیدی بی‌ثبات‌کننده برای رژیم‌های استبدادی در آینده باشد، کوته‌بینانه است.
کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله English

Pandemic, Protests, Paradoxical Reform, and Lingering Authoritarian in the Middle East

نویسندگان English

Mahmood Monshipouri 1
Javad Heiran-Nia 2
1 Chair/Professor International Relations Department San Francisco State University; and Lucture Global Studies/International and Area Studies University of California, Berkeley
2 International Relations, Director of the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

The COVID-19 pandemic has strengthened the hands of authoritarian regimes. Unlike those who have claimed that the outbreak tends to accelerate the movement toward greater geopolitical competition, we argue that the pandemic has necessitated further cooperation between democratic and authoritarian governments, thus enhancing the longevity of the latter. This explains why the global pandemic has caused no fundamental changes in the regional security dynamics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), in part because it has ironically prolonged the rule of authoritarian in the region in the name of providing public health. Despite the rhetoric of religious pluralism, moderation, as well as constitutional reforms, sentiments echoing narrow and virulent nationalism and right-wing populism have simultaneously prevailed. On balance, the persistent use of repression in liberalized autocracies in the region has manifested itself in the form of repressing protesters during tough economic times.  For example, in protests against unemployment in Oman in 2018 or against tax reform in Jordan in 2019, and during Saudi Arabia’s 2017-20 Qatif unrest or in Algeria’s ongoing political protests, such patterns of behavior have been visible.  Even in those regimes that have introduced constitutional reforms in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, when priority has been given to combating a global pandemic, a floundering economy, and other emerging threats, such as the campaign against terrorism, authoritarian regimes have wound up consolidating their rule, thus exploiting such crises in order to grab further power at home and seek geopolitical advantage in the region.  However, it is short-sighted to underestimate the possibility of the spontaneous eruption of popular uprisings that could pose a destabilizing threat to authoritarian regimes at some point in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Protests
uprisings
COVID-19 pandemic
authoritarianism
populism
social media
monarchies
republics
the Middle East and North Africa
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