فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

تاثیر تحریم‌های بین‌المللی بر امنیت انرژی روسیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستخرج از رساله

نویسندگان
عباس ملکی 1
شهاب الدین شکری 2
1 استاد سیستم های انرژی، دانشکده انرژی، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف
2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مطالات روسیه، دانشکده مطالعات جهان، دانشگاه تهران.
10.22034/isj.2024.457551.2172
چکیده
اقتصاد روسیه با توجه به چسبندگی بودجه آن به درآمدهای هیدروکربوری، در پی انواع تحریم‌ها ناشی از مناقشه اوکراین از سال 2014 تا کنون آسیب دیده است. هدف این تحقیق بررسی آثار تحریم‌های 2014 و 2022 بر امنیت انرژی روسیه می‌باشد. سوال این است که با توجه به صادرات سوخت‌های فسیلی روسیه به مناطق مقصد، آیا تفاوت معناداری در روند آن بر اساس متغیر تحریم ایجاد شده است؟ و راهبردهای روسیه برای تعدیل اثرات تحریم چه می‌باشند؟ با توجه به اینکه این تحقیق از نوع علّی-قیاسی است، فرضیه مورد بررسی از نوع مقایسه‌ای، متغیر وابسته، وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی روسیه، و متغیر گروه‌بندی، کشورهای مورد بررسی بودند. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای OriginPro2024 و SPSS27 استفاده شد. طبق یافته‌ها، در 87 درصد کشورها و مناطق مورد بررسی، تحریم‌های 2014 اثر معناداری بر وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی روسیه نداشته‌اند که علت آن را باید در ماهیت تحریم‌ها و رویکرد چندجانبه روسیه جست و جو کرد. اما تحریم‌های 2022 طی 13 ماه منتهی به فوریه 2024 کاهش معنادار واردات انواع سوخت فسیلی از سوی اتحادیه اروپا، و تقویت اضلاع شرقی را به دنبال داشته‌اند. به لحاظ ارزش دلاری، صادرات گاز طبیعی روسیه بیشترین کاهش معنادار را تجربه کرده است. در مقابل، روسیه تا حد زیادی توانسته صادرات نفت خود را با وجود محدودیت‌های قانونی و عملی حفظ کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تحریم 2014
تحریم 2022
تحلیل مقایسه
وابستگی به انرژی
اضلاع چهارگانه

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of International Sanctions on Russia's Energy Security

نویسندگان English

Abbas Maleki 1
Shahab Alddin Shokri 2
1 Prof. at Department of Energy, Sharif University of Technology
2 Ph.D. Student of Russian Studies, Dept. Faculty of World Studies, University of Tehran.
چکیده English

Due to the dependence of its state budget on oil and gas revenues, the Russian economy has suffered since 2014 from various sanctions caused by the Ukraine conflict. The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of the 2014 and 2022 sanctions on Russia's energy security. The question was whether there has been a significant difference in Russia's fossil fuel export trend due to the embargo? This research was causal-comparative. The dependent variable was dependence on Russia's fossil fuels and the grouping variable was the countries studied. OriginPro 2024 and SPSS 27 software were used for data analysis. According to the results, the 2014 sanctions did not have a significant impact on Russia's dependence on fossil fuels in 87% of the countries and regions examined, which may be due to the nature of the sanctions and Russia’s multilateral approach. But the 2022 sanctions had a significant impact on Russia's energy security. In terms of dollar value, Russian natural gas exports recorded the most significant decline. On the other hand, Russia was largely able to maintain its oil exports despite restrictions imposed.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

sanction 2014
sanction 2022
comparative analysis
energy dependence
four sides
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