International Studies Journal (ISJ)

International Studies Journal (ISJ)

A Comparative Study on Statistical Modeling of Trends of the Topics of the United States and Russia Presidents' Speeches at the United Nations

Document Type : Original Independent Original Article

Authors
Majid Abbasi 1
Mohammed Bijari 2
1 Associated Prof. at Department of International Relations, Faculty of Law & Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. Student of International Relations, Faculty of Law & Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/isj.2026.402421.2029
Abstract
Knowing the most important issues of foreign policy from the perspective of countries helps a lot to understand their policies. One of the most important events in which one can observe the views of countries regarding the most important issues of the world community is the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. Since the importance of this issue is greater regarding the great powers, it is doubly important to examine the view of the great powers on the most important issues facing the international community. This research seeks to identify and compare the most important foreign policy issues of the United States and Russia as the hegemon of the international system after the Cold War and one of the most important competing powers of the hegemon in the current period. For this purpose, the topics that the heads of these two countries have discussed in the speeches of the United Nations General Assembly are analyzed and identified based on statistical methods, and then these topics are compared with each other in order to determine and compare the trends of attention to them in the years after the Cold War.

Highlights

Introduction

Although the pattern of relations between the United States and Russia changed with the end of the Cold War, due to the change in the international system, the comparison of the two countries' views on international issues remained important because Russia was still considered a great power in the international system. In other words, although Russia has lost a large portion of its influence compared to the Cold War era, it is still very influential as a major power on the international system. This study seeks to identify and compare the general views of the two countries on the issues and priorities of the international system by quantitatively comparing the rhetoric of American and Russian political leaders in the United Nations' General Assembly during the years after the Cold War.

Method

One of the most important advantages of using quantitative methods is that it allows for accurate and unbiased measurement of issues; for this purpose, quantitative methods, specifically the Non-negative Matrix Factorization model, have been used to compare the main issues raised by the political leaders of these two countries at the United Nations.

Findings

The outputs of the negative matrix factorization model are a set of related keywords that have been grouped together due to their relevance in the various texts under study. To interpret these keywords, it is best to first determine the topic that each category represents. Accordingly, the research findings show that these rhetorics can be divided into ten categories in terms of subject matter using the model used in the research, which are:

No.

Topic

Keywords

1

United Nations

Principles, Effective, Members, Organization, Peacekeeping, Reforms, Support, Role, Charter, States, Nations, United

2

Strategic Issues

 

Disarmament, Strategic, Ban, Iran, Collective, Destruction, Non-Proliferation, Treaty, Weapons, Nuclear

3

World Peace

Power, Citizens, War, Children, Country, Nation, Democracy, Freedom, Future, America, World, People

 

4

Development

Organization, Modern, Society, States, World, Cooperation, Countries, Development, Global, Economy, Russia, International

5

Middle East

Africa, North, Israeli, Palestinians, Settlement, Arab, State, Region, Israel, Palestine, Middle East

6

Human Rights

Fundamental, Existence, Institution, Respect, Minorities, Women, Support, Honor, Declaration, Global, Human, Rights

7

Terrorism

Destruction, Actions, confrontation, drugs, weapons, convention, discipline, fight, terrorist, international, terrorism

8

Dispute resolution

end, security, prosperity, modern, hard, conflict, permission, operation, war, preservation, peace

9

Diplomatic courtesy

greeting, permission, honor, choice[s], addressee, time, Mr. Secretary, Mr. Chairman, meeting, assembly, general

10

Security Council

decisions, regime, permanent, members, organization, charter, sanctions, Iraq, resolution, council, security

Conclusion

Although the level of attention countries pay to different issues is not the same over the years and is affected by external developments, and the frequency of issues in each year reflects the conditions of that country in that year, comparing the relative frequency of issues raised over the entire research period can provide a general and macro view of the importance of issues in the eyes of the leaders of these countries.

This comparison shows that the Russians were more concerned about security during this period, while the Americans, probably due to their hegemonic position, paid more attention to global issues. The equality of the two countries' attention to diplomatic etiquette shows the importance of observing international customs and etiquette in the eyes of the leaders of the two countries. Except for this case regarding terrorism and issues related to the Security Council, Russia has shown more attention than the United States; on other issues, the United States has shown more attention. A summary of these issues and a comparison of their extent or which country has paid more attention to this issue can be shown in the table below:

Topic

Comparison 

United Nations

The United States

Strategic Issues

The United States

World Peace

The United States

Development

The United States

Middle East

The United States

Human Rights

The United States

Terrorism

Russia

Dispute Resolution

The United States

Diplomatic Etiquette

Equal

Security Counsil

Russia

 

Keywords
United Nations General Assembly
Quantitative Content Analysis
Statistical Modeling
Topic Model
Subjects
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