Analyzing Factors Affecting Trump’s Foreign Policy against Iran: Lessons for Iran

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors

1 Department of International Relations, Isfahan Branch (Khorasgan), Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and international relations, Isfahan University, Isfahan, Iran

3 Associate Professor. Department of Law, University of Isfahan , Isfahan ,Iran

Abstract

This study examines the influential factors behind Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election and his adoption of aggressive stances vis-à-vis Iran, the already fragile Iran-US ties, forged during the Obama administration under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), faced uncertainties. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 exacerbated the tensions between the two countries, bringing them to the brink of a full-scale war. Trump’s primary objective in withdrawing from the deal and adopting hostile positions against Iran through a strategy of maximum pressure was to achieve an agreement aligning with the interests of the United States. He pursued his ideal agreement in line with the slogan "America First" and making America great again. For Trump, considerations such as ideology, international agreements, and even global public opinion held no significance. The main question addressed in this study is what factors influenced Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran. Trump’s aggressive foreign policy toward Iran reveals the motivations underlying his aggressive and hostile behavior toward Iran. The findings of this study are based on Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory and an analytical-descriptive approach to examining Trump’s personality traits. The conclusion demonstrates that Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran was shaped by internal factors encompassing the roles and personalities of Trump himself, the Department of State, the Treasury Department, the National Security Council, Congress, think tanks, media outlets, and pro-Israeli lobbies. External factors such as the role of Israel and Saudi Arabia, the European Union, China, Russia, and most importantly, Iran’s regional conduct also played a significant role. Through the integration and overlap of offensive realism and Trump’s personality analysis, this study seeks to provide a better understanding of Trump’s aggressive foreign policy toward Iran.

Highlights

Introduction

After Donald Trump’s taking office, the United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), one of the most important agreements reached between Iran and the United Staes several decades after the victory of the Iranian Revolution. This was the start of Trump’s policy of creating crises and securitizing foreign policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The first thing that came to mind about Trump was his unpredictability and impulsiveness, a limited grasp of key foreign policy issues, and unexpected changes. Prioritizing the peace process between Arab states and Israel, combating terrorism, and countering Iran constituted pivotal strategies employed by Trump to foster stability in the Middle East region. After taking office and withdrawing from the JCPOA, Trump not only sustained economic sanctions against Iran but also broadened their scope by introducing secondary sanctions, which were added to the previous ones. Consequently, American political elites characterized these sanction measures as "maximum pressure," supplanting the prospect of military intervention against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Trump sought to secure maximum US interests by maximizing pressure using crisis and securitizing relations with Iran. He leveraged international trade as a tool to achieve foreign policy objectives. Global trade has been the cornerstone of US national and foreign security, which can be interpreted as a challenge to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s neo-regionalist foreign policy and as aligned with the objectives and actions of the Arab-Israeli axis against Iran.

 

Theoretical Foundations and Conceptual Framework

John Mearsheimer, a distinguished scholar in international relations, contends that states should adopt security policies aimed at diminishing the strength of potential adversaries while concurrently enhancing their own power relative to other states. According to him, if a state intends to survive, it must possess a good offensive capability. Offensive realism sees anarchy and disorder as the primary reason for the aggressive behavior of states. A state with an offensive orientation exhibits a disposition where the principles of moderation and self-restraint are incomprehensible; rather, it seeks to optimize its power while concurrently diminishing the strength of others under any circumstances.

In accordance with the tenets of offensive realism, the United States endeavors to assert its supremacy in the West Asia region and globally through the adoption of an assertive strategy. To maintain the desired balance of power against threatening countries, including Iran, the United States employs various strategies. According to John Mearsheimer, one of the primary goals of superpowers is the pursuit of superior power, and the methods that countries use to achieve their ultimate goals are significant. In this regard, he presents two strategies: first, achieving relative power, and second, controlling aggressors and preventing them from attaining greater relative power, which is detrimental to the rival state. The paradox of hegemony is that hegemons always believe that their superiority is fragile.

 

Findings

The foreign policy strategy adopted by the United States towards the Islamic Republic of Iran throughout the Trump administration emanated from the principles of offensive realism and the hegemonic power paradigm inherent to the United States. The foreign policy of the United States is influenced by numerous internal and external factors, including the role and personality of Trump, the State Department, the Department of Defense, the National Security Council, Congress, American think tanks and media outlets, Israeli influence and Zionist lobbying, the role of Saudi Arabia, the European Union, China, and Russia. Trump had a pessimistic opinion of the JCPOA and Resolution 2231. Consequently, he pursued an aggressive course of action, establishing new regional and global alliances and coalitions with the aim of countering Iran. These tensions peaked during the Trump administration. The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA the reintroduction of stringent sanctions under the policy of maximum pressure, as well as the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani, brought the conditions closer to a military conflict than ever before. In this regard, Iran’s conduct in the West Asia region against the United States, recognizing the latter’s significance as a pivotal and influential nation in the volatile region, along with its concerted endeavors to attain self-sufficiency in military capabilities, and the advancement and proliferation of diverse long-range missiles featuring varying degrees of precision, constitute pivotal elements within Iran’s military framework aimed at countering U.S. influence over the past four decades. To control Iran and ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States views the nations of the Persian Gulf region as its strategic centerpiece. Trump believed that Iran posed a threat to the Strait of Hormuz and destabilized the security of the Persian Gulf countries through various tools and tactics. In the pursuit of smart power, Iran achieved a milestone by expanding its influence beyond the heart of the Syrian crisis to encompass the Mediterranean region and the Israeli borders. Despite the declared policies and repeated threats of military action against Iran, Trump administration persisted in its steadfast strategy of countering Iran. Threats directed at the Iranian government had the potential to escalate into a regional conflict, with the prospect of evolving into a situation more dire than the invasion of Iraq in 2003. In this regard, the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani cautioned Donald Trump regarding antagonistic policies towards Tehran, emphasizing that "America should know that a peace agreement with Iran is the mother of all peace agreements, and a war against Iran is the mother of all wars." The main component of Trump’s aggressive policy towards Iran essentially constituted a structure aimed at constraining Iran, a response driven by Iran’s influence in the region. Hence, Trump attempted to return to the policy of controlling Iran by exerting pressure on its neighbors and regional partners (i.e., Persian Gulf countries). Trump administration broadened the militarization of U.S. foreign policy with the aim of advancing the nation’s interests in international affairs.

 

Conclusion

According to Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism, the development of Iran’s regional activities weakened US influence in the region and diminished its hegemony. Trump, with his assertive and realistic personality, sought to preserve and enhance American power against Iran’s increasing power in the West Asia region by employing aggressive foreign policy instruments. He attempted to incite crises and securitize relations against Iran, persuading regional countries and the international community to take limited military action by creating a perception of an imminent threat posed by Iran. Owing to the absence of European backing for the United States, the evasion of sanctions, the escalation of Iran’s assertive military capabilities, and the ambivalent positions of China and Russia concerning Iran, Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran ultimately encountered a setback by failing to secure triumph in the presidential elections.

Keywords

Main Subjects


  1. Abbasi, M., & Hamidfar, H. R. (2020). The Alliance of Saudi Arabia and Israel with the United States and its Consequences on Influence and Balance of Power of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Middle East. International Studies Journal, 17(3), 7-25. doi: 10.22034/isj.2021.247668.1213 (In Persian)
  2. Ahmadian, H. (2018). Iran and Saudi Arabia in the age of Trump. Survival, 60(2), 133-150. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2018.1448579
  3. Albarasneh, A. S., & Khatib, D. K. (2019). The US policy of containing Iran – from Obama to Trump 2009–2018. Global Affairs, 5, 369-387. doi: 10.1080/23340460.2019.1701951
  4. Alcaro, R. (2018). All Is Not Quiet on the Western Front. Trump's Iran Policy and Europe's Choice on the Nuclear Deal. Istituto Affari Internazionali, 1-26.
  5. Alcaro, R. (2021). Europe’s Defence of the Iran Nuclear Deal: Less than a Success, More than a Failure. The International Spectator, 56(1), 55-72. doi: 10.1080/03932729.2021.1876861
  6. Aliakbarpoor, R., Keshishyan Siraki, G., Dehshiri, M., & Vali Zadeh, A. (2020). The Evolution of the Concept of Power and its Impact on the Regional Policy of Iran. Journal of Politics and International Relations, 3(6), 212-241. doi: 22080/jpir.2020.2684 (In Persian)
  7. Alishahi, A., & Forouzan, Y. (2020). Donald Trump's paradigm shift towards the Islamic Revolution of Iran and the Shiite Resistance Front in the region, Passing from soft threats to terror. Journal of Politics and International Relations, 4(7), 165-190. doi: 22080/jpir.2020.2953 (In Persian)
  8. Arghavani Pirsalami, F., & Pirankho, S. (2017). Missile Technology and the I.R of Iran’s Defense- Security Strategy. Strategy, 26(2), 51-74. (In Persian)
  9. Azarshab, M., & Momeni, S. M. (2017). Regional Security Requirements and Iran's Security Strategy in the Middle East. Journal of Political Strategy, 1(2), 137-161. (In Persian)
  10. Basiri, M. A., & Ainehvand, H. (2016). A Comparative Analysis of the Approaches of Russia, China and the United States of America Towards Iran's Nuclear Program. Iranian Research letter of International Politics, 5(1), 25-55. doi: 22067/jipr.v5i1.54431 (In Persian)
  11. Bazoobandi, S., Heibach, J., & Richter, T. (2023). Iran’s foreign policy making: consensus building or power struggle?, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 1-25. doi: 10.1080/13530194.2023.2189572
  12. Belal, K. (2019). Uncertainty over the joint comprehensive plan of action: Iran, the European Union and the United States. Policy Perspectives, 16(1), 23-39. doi: 10.13169/polipers.16.1.0023
  13. Bianco, C. (2020). The GCC Monarchies: Perceptions of the Iranian Threat amid Shifting Geopolitics. The International Spectator, 55(2), 92-107. doi: 10.1080/03932729.2020.1742505
  14. Brands, H. (2017). The unexceptional superpower: American grand strategy in the age of Trump. Survival, 59(6), 7-40. doi: 10.1080/00396338.2017.1399722
  15. Carchiyeva, N. (2023). US-Iran Relations in the XXI Century: Obama Administration`s Policy towards Iran. Uluslararası Türk Dünyası Arastırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 75-88.
  16. Devanny, J. (2022). ‘Madman Theory’ or ‘Persistent Engagement’? The Coherence of US Cyber Strategy under Trump. Journal of Applied Security Research, 17(3), 282-309. doi: 10.1080/19361610.2021.1872359
  17. Djuyandi, Y., Brahmantika, S. G. S., & Tarigan, B. R. (2021). The collapse of global governance: when the US leaves the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA). Society, 9(2), 504-521. doi: 33019/society.v9i2.304
  18. Ebrahimi, S. (2022). Financial constraint and output pricing: the case of international sanctions against Iran. Journal of Applied Economics­, 25(1), 1219-1238. doi: 10.1080/15140326.2022.2129145
  19. Ejazi, E., Ghorbani, A., Simbar, R., & Jansiz, A. (2020). The Impact of US Mainstream Mass Media on American Foreign Policy toward Iran (2007-2020). International Studies Journal, 16(4), 23-45. doi:22034/isj.2020.110059 (In Persian)
  20. Entessar, N., & Afrasiabi, K. L. (2019). Trump and Iran: From Containment to Confrontation. New York: Lexington Books.
  21. Ertem, H. S. (2019). Introduction: American Foreign Policy in an Era of Transition. Perceptions, 24(1), 1-6.
  22. Faraji, M. (2020). Foreign Policy Strategies in the situation of Power Transition: Iran and Saudi Arabia. Foreign Relations, 12(3), 519-549. (In Persian)
  23. Fathi, F. (2020). Investigating and Analyzing the Requirements of Aggressive Realism with the Comparative View of Neorealism Theory. Journal Law Research of Ghanonyar, 4(15), 823-852. (In Persian)
  24. Fawcett, L., & Payne, A. (2023). Stuck on a hostile path? US policy towards Iran since the revolution. Contemporary Politics, 29(1), 1-21. doi: 10.1080/13569775.2022.2029239
  25. Fiedler, R. (2022). The policy of maximum pressure on Iran. US policy objectives and effects. Przeglad Strategiczny, (15), 283-297. doi: 10.14746/ps.2022.1.17
  26. Galbraith, J. (2019). Trump administration's Iran policies raise questions about the executive's authority to use force against Iran. American Journal of International Law, 113(4), 845-849. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/ajil.2019.63
  27. Hazrati Razlighi, M.A., & Sadati Nejad, S.M. (2020). The teachings of the Christian right and the foreign policy of the United States of America. Journal of New Achievements in Humanities Studies, 3(31), 142-159. (In Persian)
  28. Heidari, N., & Mirghiasi, S. A. (2020). Trump's foreign policy and the security puzzle of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Political Science Quarterly, 16(51), 47-63. (In Persian)
  29. Helwig, N. (2020). Out of order? The US alliance in Germany’s foreign and security policy. Contemporary Politics, 26(4), 439-457. doi: 10.1080/13569775.2020.1777039
  30. Jahanbakhsh, M. (2020). Studying the activities of the 116th Congress and its role in the US foreign policy towards Iran. Foreign Relations, 12(2), 285-306. (In Persian)
  31. Jakštaite, G. (2019). The Trump Administration’s Security Policy and its Significance for the Baltic States. Lithuanian Annual Strategic Review, 17, 35-61.‏ doi: 10.2478/lasr-2019-0002
  32. Jalali Barenji, M. R., Yousefi, B., Shahabi, R., & Ameri Golestani, H. (2023). Comparison of the US foreign policy approach to the world ordr during Obama’s and Trump’s presidency based on the theories of offensive and defensive realism. Intrnational Studies Journal, 19(4), 245-265. doi: 10.22034/isj.2023.351586.1863 (In Persian)
  33. Jingsi Ni, A. (2020). Leadership and Power Game in a Multi-Polarizing World: The Competition between the US and China. Open Journal of Political Science, 10(2), 253-277. doi: 10.4236/ojps.2020.102017
  34. Kabiri, Z., & Zanganah, Z. (2019). The Role of Saudi Arabia in the Withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA Nuclear Agreement. Research of Nations, 4(46), 107-130. (In Persian)
  35. Katzman, K. (2021). Iran’s foreign and defense policies. Congressional Research Service, 1-55.
  36. Kobylska, M. (2022). President Donald J. Trump’s enemy image construction in the 2019-2020 Persian Gulf crisis. Res Rhetorica, 9(2), 43-61. doi: 10.29107/rr2022.2.3
  37. Kroenig, M. (2018). The Return to the Pressure Track: The Trump Administration and the Iran Nuclear Deal. Diplomacy & Statecraft, 29(1), 94-104. doi: 10.1080/09592296.2017.1420529
  38. Lahdili, N. (2018). Trump Factor: A Militarization of the US Foreign Policy. PhD Student, School of Social Sciences, AYBU, Turkey. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12722.15042
  39. Matera, P., & Matera, R. (2019). Why does cooperation work or fail? The case of EU-US sanction policy against Iran. Croatian International Relations Review, 25(85), 29-62. doi: 10.2478/cirr-2019-0005
  40. Mohammadzadeh Ebrahimi, F., & Maleki, M. (2016). Obama's Foreign Policy Doctrine and the Zionist Regime. Foreign Relations, 8(3), 115-144. (In Persian)
  41. Mosler, M., & Potrafke, N. (2020). International political alignment during the Trump presidency: voting at the UN general assembly. International Interactions, 46(3), 481-497. doi: 10.1080/03050629.2020.1719405
  42. Mueller, K. P. (2018). Conventional deterrence Redux: Avoiding great power conflict in the 21st century. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12(4), 76-93.‏
  43. Noori, V., & Hosseini, S. H. (2019). Egoism in the US Foreign Policy over Trump’s Tenure, The Results and the Implications. Studies of International Relations Journal, 12(46), 179-216. (In Persian)
  44. Nourani, N., Danesh, A., Nouri M. R., & Latifi, F. (2020). Discursive (De)legitimization of the Iran Nuclear Deal in Donald Trump’s Tweets. Strategic Analysis, 44(4), 332-345. doi: 10.1080/09700161.2020.1809205
  45. Orhan, D. D. (2023). Making Foreign Policy through Twitter: An Analysis of Trump's Tweets on Iran. Research anthology on social media's influence on government, politics, and social movements. 350-352.
  46. Othman, A. (2019). Trump: Current Impact & Future Consequences.
  47. Rees, M. T. (2023). Ontological (in)security and the Iran nuclear deal—explaining instability in US foreign policy interests. Foreign Policy Analysis, 19(3), 1-21. doi: 10.1093/fpa/orad013
  48. Roomi, F. (2023). Transition in Strategic Priorities of the Islamic ‎Republic Foreign Policy: From “Neither East, ‎Nor West” to “Look to the East”‎‎. Political Quarterly, 53(1), 161-135.‏ doi: 10.22059/jpq.2023.93704
  49. Steff, R., & Tidwell, A. (2020). Understanding and evaluating Trump’s foreign policy: A three frame analysis. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 74(4), 394-419. doi: 10.1080/10357718.2020.1721431
  50. Vaez, H., Khodaverdi, H., Keshidhyan Siraki, G., & Dehsiri, M. (2023). Normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations and its impact on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s national security: threats against the axis of resistance. International Studies Journal, 19(4), 287-314. doi: 10.22034/isj.2023.347291.1853 (In Persian)
  51. Wojczewski, T. (2020). Trump, Populism, and American Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3), 292-311. doi: 10.1093/fpa/orz021
  52. Yari, E. (2019). Geopolitical Requirements and Strategic Requirements of the Islamic Republic of Iran's Missile Program in the Anarchic Environment of the International System. Scientific Journal of Security Horizons, 12(42), 38-61. (In Persian)