Analyzing the Reasons for Turkey's Strategic Policy Shift in Syria: A Study from 2020 to 2023

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors

1 PhD student in International Relations, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran.

Abstract

Turkey's policies have undergone various ebbs and flows over the past two decades. These policies have been characterized by both friendly relations with neighbors and inference in the internal affairs of certain countries, including Syria. These changes fall under the broader strategic objectives of the Turkish government, which require further examination. This article aims to investigate the reasons behind Turkey's strategic policy shift towards Syria. The significance of Syria's position in Turkey's regional political-security strategy has influenced the Erdogan government's change in strategy. This article addresses the question of the impact of Erdogan's policy shift towards Syria on Turkey's strategic policies in the region. The research findings, based on an explanatory-analytical approach using secondary data, indicate several reasons, including Erdogan's perceptual-psychological nature and personality, his inclination to enhance Turkey's position, the internal political and economic instability, as well as national security concerns, particularly in dealing with Kurdish groups. These factors have constrained the Turkish government to adopt a new policy towards Syria. This shift of policy will change Turkey's strategies in the Middle East and cause it to abandon its neo-Ottomanist policies. The economic instability of Turkey, national security considerations, the long border between the two countries, the issue of the Kurds, terrorism, and the presence of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey are all significant factors in this strategic shift. Currently, Turkey is more pragmatic in changing its neo-Ottomanist policies.

Highlights

Introduction

After Turkey's attempts at membership in the European Union failed, the Justice and Development Party, an Islamist party, sought to pursue a strong political and security presence in the Middle East through a paradigm shift in its foreign and security policy. Erdogan's third term as president began in a powerful yet challenging position. Syria holds a special significance for Turkish policymakers. The importance of this issue is further magnified by the regional and transregional power competition and the dynamics of cooperation and rivalry among the United States, the Russian Federation, and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Initially, Ankara took a firm stance against Assad and supported the efforts of rebels to oust the Syrian leader. However, conflicting objectives emerged once it turned out that Assad would remain in power. Turkey is currently facing an economic crisis that places heavy political pressure on its previous approach towards Syria. In addition, domestic political challenges and certain security issues also play a significant role in this shift of approach. This article aims to provide a deeper analysis of these issues.

 

Methodology

This article employs a descriptive-explanatory methodology according to the subject matter, time, and location. We have attempted to describe and theoretically explain the available data in this study. Furthermore, data collection was conducted through library research, document analysis, and note-taking. The reviewed articles relevant to this topic are in Persian, English, and Turkish. Given the current and ongoing nature of the topic at hand, the use of online citation databases has also been of particular importance.

 

Results and Discussions

The research findings relevant to international relations in the Middle East reveal a gap between international relations theories and regional characteristics. Researchers have attempted to address this issue by incorporating domestic factors into structural approaches. This article focuses on the analysis of foreign policy in terms of its domestic orientation, psychological dimensions, and key factors, which are often overlooked in many analyses of Middle Eastern foreign policies.

In recent years, the decline of Erdogan's charismatic personality and its transformation into a dictatorial figure in Turkey, along with the emergence of certain domestic and economic crises in the country and environmental variables, have led to changes in foreign policy alternatives. The policies of decision-makers within Turkey's foreign policy structure, as well as the proposed options, have been heavily influenced by the variable role of decision-makers at the helm of power (i.e., Erdogan), domestic structure, societal variables, and the variable of the international system or environment. We have utilized these factors, with an emphasis on the decision-maker's personality (individual), to assess the hypothesis. It is worth noting that the events in Syria, which have brought about a significant shift in Turkey's national security doctrine, carry exceptional importance in terms of a new understanding of security and have had both domestic and international ramifications for Turkey.

The developments in Syria have caused Turkey to experience different conditions and trends in its foreign policy and security. In summary, since 2016, Turkey's activities in Syria have been influenced by its domestic policies, assisting Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party in maintaining power. Following the unsuccessful coup attempt in July 2016, Turkey's policy in Syria played a crucial role in restoring the credibility of the Turkish armed forces and restoring the balance between non-military and military powers.

 

Conclusion

In Turkey's foreign policy structure, the variable of the decision-maker, namely Erdogan, is more significant than other variables. The vicissitudes in Syria, by changing the issue from a domestic problem to a regional and international challenge with the presence of various actors with different interests and Turkey's excessive inference in Syria's domestic policies without considering the different circumstances, have led to dissatisfaction among the Assad government, some regional countries, and international actors. Conversely, the acceptance of a large number of Syrian refugees and the social and economic challenges resulting from it have caused a decline in the popularity of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey. These aforementioned changes, in addition to economic losses and challenges, have landed Turkey into a self-made political isolation. Now, Turkish leaders understand that Turkey and Syria share a long border and have common interests in the withdrawal of US forces from Syria, cease arming Kurds, and counterterrorism efforts. The Assad government is soliciting assistance from Turkey to curb opposition in Idlib and north-western Syria. On the other hand, Syria has offered support to Turkey in fighting PKK and its Kurdish affiliate groups in northeastern Syria. One other important issue when reevaluating their relationship is the millions of Syrian refugees present in Turkey. These factors indicate that there is a challenging and long road ahead for any agreement on normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria. However, some factors have made Erdogan reconsider and change his policies towards Syria. Therefore, it can be acknowledged that the hypothesis of this article has been proven.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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