India's Strategic Risks in the Initiative Framework of the One Road-Belt

Document Type : Original Independent Original Article

Authors

1 PhD. of international Relations, Kharazmi University, Tehran

2 PhD. student of International Relations, Allameh Tabatabai University

3 PhD Student of International Relations Department, Faculty of Theology, Law and Political Sciences, Research Sciences Unit, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The Indian economy is in dire need of investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. However, Dehli has declined to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), citing concerns that the project may escalate regional rivalry and conflict, violate national sovereignty, and accord with Beijing's ambitious policies. Some suspect that the establishment of naval installations in the Indian Ocean and the fortification of the China-Pakistan land route are parts of a larger plan by Beijing to encircle India. This article provides an analytic review of the BRI, examining its economic, military, and geopolitical implications. It also delves into India's perspective on the matter, exploring why the country views Beijing's institutional arrangements, including the BRI, as a major threat to its national interests. Using the descriptive-explanatory approach and basing our reasoning on structural realism's first and foremost tenet—that capabilities, not objectives, shape the international system—we have put the following hypothesis to the test: The significant economic success of this project is a logical assumption; however, this initiative may also serve as a guarantee for China's regional influence and military or security presence in the Indian Ocean, shifting the relative balance of power in Beijing's favor. Findings indicate that Dehli's opposition to the initiative stems from its sovereignty and territorial integrity concerns.

Highlights

Introduction

Chinese President Xi Jinping put forth an economic belt proposal in Astana, Kazakhstan, back in September 2013. This proposal today is known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The ambitious project aims to unite the Eurasian economies through infrastructure development, trade facilitation measures, and macroeconomic capital infusion. As an economic undertaking, it seeks to establish links between China and key Western markets via four land corridors and a sea route spanning China’s coastal region to the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The larger BRI region includes over 60 countries and hosts a population of three billion individuals. It covers nearly one-third of the global economy and generates approximately 40% of the world's economic output (Zhai, 2018:84). As per the reports, a comprehensive plan has been proposed to construct railways, highways, gas pipelines, ports, airports, and science and technology parks so as to bolster economic policies and facilitate trade across the nations involved.

While many invited countries have welcomed China's plan, several, notably the United States, Australia, and Japan, have raised concerns about China's objectives and the project's potential benefits. India's stance on the project is noteworthy given its dire need for infrastructure investment. But the country has demonstrated resolute opposition to the initiative. India demonstrated its formidable stance by abstaining from the 2017 meeting of the BRI as a form of protest. India has been skeptical about China-Pakistan economic relations, with concerns raised over the transparency and procedural aspects of the initiative. India is not opposed to infrastructure development in the region but is concerned about the strategic implications of specific Chinese-led initiatives. This study aims to highlight the potential systemic repercussions of the BRI on India, including economic, military, and geopolitical dimensions. The study’s main question is: Why does India view the development of Beijing's institutional arrangements, including the BRI, as a fundamental threat to its national interests?

In response to this question, the proposed hypothesis draws upon the tenets of structural realism theory: While the noteworthy economic gain of this endeavor is a reasonable expectation, the implementation of this important communication plan will serve to bolster Beijing's influence in the region and boost the nation's military and security presence in the Indian Ocean, which is viewed as a significant threat to India.

 

Methodology

This study employs a descriptive-explanatory methodology based on desk research and credible online resources. The first focus of the study is on the theoretical and methodological framework of structural realism. The various narratives associated with this initiative are evaluated in subsequence. The last section is divided into two parts. The first part examines the economic implications of the BRI for China and India. The second part delves into the consequences of this initiative on India's security and geo-strategic interests.

 

Findings and Conclusions

The complex and multifaceted relationship between the two Asian superpowers, characterized by economic interdependence, is marked by signs of mistrust and power rivalry. This study analyzed many BRI dimensions, although its theoretical approach was restricted to a structural realist framework. Based on the analysis conducted, the BRI will have a limited impact on China's military capabilities in the Indian Ocean in the immediate future. Over time, this action will bolster Beijing's place as a vital investment hub and a driver for regional unity. Consequently, when the initiative's economic and military aspects are considered concurrently, the relative balance of power favors China.

The rise of China as a key economic and strategic actor has significantly altered the connectivity landscape in Asia, particularly in light of the region's infrastructure needs. Beijing has recently exhibited a heightened level of political determination to undertake regional engagement measures. This shift has significantly impacted the security landscape for neighboring countries, such as India. The increasing collaboration between Beijing and India's neighboring countries has raised concerns in Delhi. Like any burgeoning global power with aspirations of grandeur, China is endeavoring to extend its reach and enhance its prominence beyond its neighbors. With Beijing's increasing influence in South Asia, Dehli faces the challenge of managing its relationship with its largest neighbor and competing to maintain its regional standing. Beyond the natural concerns regarding an initiative by a potentially hostile power, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is at the heart of India's contention.

The enhancement of land connectivity between China and the Indian Ocean could potentially disrupt the current naval balance in the region in the short term. However, given China's considerable edge in terms of overall capabilities and its established status in Southeast Asia, it remains well-positioned to gradually expand its naval power over the long haul. In 1962, India's strategic considerations included the apprehension of a potential two-front war, one against Pakistan in the west and the other against China in the northeast. The prospect of a China-Pakistan alliance is a factor that cannot be overlooked.

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