Document Type : Original Independent Original Article
Highlights
Introduction
The withdrawal of American military forces from Afghanistan at the same time as the return of Taliban to power can be analyzed as a strategic issue from various dimensions. The purpose of present article is to examine the global strategy of America in leaving Afghanistan and the strategic turn to the East Asia. This article answers the question with a descriptive-analytical method; why did America end its twenty-year military presence in Afghanistan after bearing huge financial and military costs? In response to this question. the hypothesis has been proposed that "»powerful economic and military rise of China in the shadow of transferring the responsibility of global security to the United States has raised an unprecedented threat against the perceived global hegemony of the United States and the desirable international order of this country Therefore, according to American decision-makers, the withdrawal of this country's military forces from Afghanistan is a strategic opportunity to turn to East Asia and create a new alliance in the Asia-Pacific region in order to control the threat of China”. The finding of the research is that in order to maintain its hegemonic position against the threat of China, America is trying to adopt a coercive hegemonic strategy focusing on the East Asia while dividing the huge burden of global security responsibility among its allies.
Theoretical Framework: From "Hegemonic Stability" to "Coercive Hegemony"
The discussion of hegemony mainly revolves around two main concepts: dominance and leadership. Dominance refers to the material capabilities of the hegemon country and leadership refers to its normative and prescriptive capabilities (Clark, 2011:18-19).
Kindleberger poses the issue of "hegemonic stability" and believes that the hegemonic power is responsible for providing "public interests" in the international system and must prevent actions "against public interests". Such a special task can lead to the stabilization of hegemony in long term (Stokes, 2018:7).
Unlike Kindleberger, Gilpin argues for coercive hegemony, arguing that hegemons provide public goods but are less tolerant about governments attempting to free ride. According to Gilpin, provision of public goods is desirable for the hegemon when other states are either willing to pay for them or can be forced to pay for them.
The effort to maintain hegemonic stability has imposed a heavy financial burden on the American economy; Today, America security strategy for leading the world order is based on two principles: fewer international costs and more domestic interests (Marchetti, 2017). In fact, America has entered a period of transition towards coercive hegemony since Trump. In this period, in order to reduce the burden of responsibility for global security, this country has seriously demanded that its allies in NATO, East Asia and the Persian Gulf share the costs of international security.
In this context, he starts negotiating with Taliban leaders to leave Afghanistan.
China's Rise and America's Strategic Turn to East Asia
Today, "China threat theory", which considers hegemonic China in Asia as a threat to the liberal world order (Soleimani Pourlak, 2022: 240), is the most important challenge to the American foreign policy.
China has the most hegemonic tendencies in the Asia-Pacific region. Of course, the strategic competition between China and America goes beyond the Asia-Pacific area.
The evolution of the American Middle East strategy from military presence to “offshore balancing” and focusing on East Asia has changed the security equations in this region.
In this regard, China seeks to fill the existing security gap by being opportunistic and concluding military contracts with regional countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Over the past years, China has narrowed its distance with the US militarily and economically. Since 2011, China's military budget has raised by 76% to reach 252 billion dollars in 2020, while the US military budget has decreased by 10% to reach 778 billion dollars this year (Sipri, 2021:4).
China's military spending in 2021 increased by 4.7% to reach 293 billion dollars. This country, with a share of 14% of the world's military budget, still ranks second after the United States with 800 billion dollars (38%). China's military spending has been growing for 27 consecutive years (Sipri, 2022:3).
Economically, China's GDP is growing at an ever-increasing pace, from about 1,200 billion dollars in 2000 to about 20,000 billion dollars in 2022, which means it has grown by about 1,700 percent (Statista, 27/10/2022). While the gross domestic product of the United States increased from about 10,200 billion dollars in 2000 to about 25,000 billion dollars in 2022, which has grown by about 150% (Statista, 21/06/2022).
The United States and the Strategy of Maintaining Hegemony
What is important to maintain the hegemony of the United States is that it must be able to respond appropriately to the security concerns of its allies. After World War II, the United States shouldered the main burden of maintaining the existing liberal order by bearing the costs of hegemony and provided a strong security umbrella for its allies and even its rivals; While today, the heavy burden of maintaining the hegemony over the American public budget is felt more than in the past. Therefore, in order to reduce the costs, the United States has put a coercive hegemonic strategy on its agenda, in which the hegemonic allies must take responsibility for a part of the costs of maintaining the existing order.
In this context, Biden withdrew American forces from Afghanistan in September 2020, and on September 15, 2021, a year after the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, with the aim of strategically focusing on East Asia, he signed the AUKUS Treaty with the membership of the United States, England, and Australia. This pact seeks to increase the "security and defense capabilities" of the members in East Asia with the aim of putting China in a strategic bottleneck. Also, after leaving Afghanistan, United States held the largest joint exercise known as Malabar 2021 in the Bay of Bengal, within the framework of the Quad Treaty, which was established in 2007 with the membership of the United States, Australia, India and Japan to ensure security in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Conclusion
In general, there is a dominant idea in the American decision-making apparatus that this country should pull itself out of the Greater Middle East in order to respond appropriately to the threats in the Indo-Pacific. In fact, the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan has opened up new opportunities for this country to focus on East Asia. Getting out of the swamp of Afghanistan, which has imposed billions of dollars in military spending on the US economy over the course of two decades, can give the country a strategic advantage against its powerful rival by saving money and freeing up the military resources in Afghanistan and directing them to the Asia-Pacific region. AUKUS security agreement and the strengthening of the QUAD agreement through the holding of new military maneuvers are a clear manifestation of strategic capacity-building after leaving Afghanistan.
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