Political Intelligence and Mindfulness of US and North Korean Leaders and Its Effect on Bilateral Relations within 2017-2019

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors

1 PhD Student of International Relations Department, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University. Shahroud, Iran.

2 Professor of Political Science at Allameh Tabatabai University

3 Professor of Political Science, University of Tehran

4 Assistant Professor of Political Science Department, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran

Abstract

In the contemporary international order, US-North Korea relations have long been fraught with a crisis over North Korea’s nuclear and missile program. The unrelenting march of the North Korean nuclear program and the US’ desire or will to destroy this threat have not only prolonged this crisis but exacerbated it. The North Korean leadership’s intellectual tradition, the nuclear program’s link to the nation’s defense and political identity, and the incoming Trump administration’s more aggressive policies compared to the Obama administration all contributed to the US-North Korean tensions. The main question concerns the effect of political intelligence and mindfulness on the decisions of American (Donald Trump) and North Korean (Kim Jong-un) leaders. The research hypothesis states that political intelligence and mindfulness have affected the decisions of North Korean and American leaders to unprecedented levels. US-North Korea relations are fraught with complexities and challenges. Therefore, this qualitative interpretive-comparative content analysis aims to gain a better insight into both leaders' political consciousness and mindfulness and its effect on bilateral relations. The findings show that the political intelligence of both political leaders affects their bilateral relations with specific political-security outcomes.

Highlights

Introduction

Using descriptive-analytical methods and library research of books, articles, reports, newspapers, and Internet-based sources, this study aims to discover the effect of political intelligence and mindfulness on decisions and securing national interests. Given the intricacies and obstacles of US-North Korean relations, this study will use comparative analysis to gain insight into both political leaders’ political intelligence and awareness during the Trump administration in order to appropriately explain its implications on bilateral relations.

 

Methodology

This qualitative study employed an interpretive-comparative methodology based on data collected using library research. The data collected from the US president's books, articles, and tweets were then analyzed. According to the research hypothesis, North Korean and US leaders’ decisions were affected by political intelligence and mindfulness.

 

Findings

Kim Jong-un is a follower of scientific socialism, a pillar of the North Korean Revolution. This new school of thought considers nuclear technology as essential to North Korea’s self-reliance approach to reacting to foreign threats, as well as a symbol of North Korean development and national pride.

Donald Trump’s personality traits are not limited to his actions. Even in social, economic, and political actions, his speeches and behaviors make it necessary to pay special attention to his personology in terms of political psychology, mindfulness, political intelligence, and how it matches the United States’ domestic and foreign policy, especially vis-à-vis North Korea.

Given North Korea’s insignificant influence on the US economy, Donald Trump’s frequent verbal attacks were less costly for the United States than other countries, giving him the leverage to discuss North Korea freely. In his first speech on North Korea, Trump labeled the country a rogue state, mirroring the George W. Bush administration’s action to instigate change in the North Korean regime’s policies.

Considering Trump’s goal to demonstrate domestic success and North Korea’s goal to achieve international prestige and minimize sanctions, both sides needed to negotiate at this level.

First, the North Korean leader formulated a 5-year plan and stressed stability and the need to respect the opinions of the military staff. To upgrade military power, he focused on nuclear capabilities and arming intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads for optimal deterrence, an objective that was unaffected by Trump’s election or defeat. Trump used these events and North Korea’s plan for his self-interest and stressed the danger posed by the country. In fact, the Trump administration was distinguished by North Korea’s attainment of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could target US soil, leading to negotiations.

 

Results

Regarding political intelligence, Trump’s personality traits somewhat influenced his decisions on the North Korean crisis. Given people’s exaggerated interpretations of their role, important political decisions by Donald Trump include sanctions, threats, negotiations with North Korea, and the cancellation of US-South Korea drills. Meanwhile, having realized the futility of pressure, the White House decided to take increased pressure, tensions, and threats off the table at least until the 2020 presidential elections. Implementing maximum pressure on North Korea would have meant accepting the failure of Trump’s policies, which would have unfavorably affected the White House near the election. Therefore, he maintained pressure at its current level and prepared for the next round of negotiations, which never took place as North Korean leaders stayed out of Trump’s election game.

The decision by North Korean leaders has national and international consequences. First, it strengthened national pride; second, the North Korean people are concerned about the future of economic pressure and even a military attack from the United States; and third, it has legitimized and secured power in the Kim dynasty. Thus, North Korean leaders have high political intelligence for controlling their people at the national level. Internationally, the decisions by North Korean leaders gave the nation bargaining power and deterrence. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has left this situation unsettled due to America’s strategic interests in East Asia and the security dilemma precipitated by North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. As a result, North Korean leaders' political intelligence led to their rejection of nuclear disarmament, and the difference in political intelligence has overshadowed bilateral US-North Korean relations.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. Adams, S. M., Zanzi, A. (2005). Developing Political Intelligence for Making Feasible Decisions. Journal of Management Development, 25: 350-367.
  2. Alam, Abdul Rahman. (2002). Foundations of political science, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
  3. Ashraf, F& Iqbal, M. Z. (2011). A research agenda on the leader’s political intelligence for effective change management. African Journal of Business Management, 5(14), 5798-5806.
  4. at:https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2016-presidential-campaign-and-crisis-us-foreign policy.
  5. Bagheri, Ali., Darj, Hamid. (2017). Donald Trump's policy and North Korea's nuclear issue. World Politics Quarterly, No. 2, Summer. (In Persian)
  6. Bamdadi, Jalal., Sadekpour, Saleh. (1998). What is intelligence? Tablet, number (In Persian)
  7. Boddewyn, J. J. (1994). International - Business Political Behavior: New Theoretical Directions. Academy of Management, 19: 119-143.
  8. Cherkaoui, M. (2016). Clinton versus Trump: Two-Distant Visions for America. Available at: http: //scar. gmu. edu/sites/default/files/MCherkaoui%20 Report% 20on% 20US% 20Politics.pdf. pp 1-17.
  9. Cook, S. & Macaulay, S. (2004). Change Management Excellence. London; Stirling, VA: Kogan Page.
  10. Deshyar, Hossein. (2015). Donald Trump in the White House, Political-Economic Information, No. (In Persian)
  11. Ebrahimi, Mehrab., (2021). strategic competition of superpowers; The role and position of China and America in the nuclear case of North Korea. Research of Nations, 70(6), 69-90. (In Persian)
  12. Ferris, G. R., Bickle, P. B., Kramer, J., Zettle, I., Solga, J., Noethen, D. & Meurs, J. A. (2008). Political Skill Construct and Criterion - related Validation: A Two - study Investigation. Journal of Managerial Psychology, 23: 744-771.
  13. Jervis, R. (2017). ISSF Policy Series: President Trump and IR Theory”. Available at: https: //networks.h-net.org/node/.../issf-policy-series-president-trump-and-ir-theory.
  14. Johnson, D. & Tierney D. (2007). We Shall be Smashed: The Munich Crisis, under confidence, and War, Unpublished manuscript.
  15. Kabiri, Afshar., Saadati, Musa., Ghasemi, Elnaz. (2018). Investigating the role of virtual social networks in explaining students' political awareness. Modern Media Studies Quarterly, 5(19), 24-34. (In Persian)
  16. Kalantari, Ezzatullah, Farkhi Barfa, Mohammad Hassan, Ghanchepour, Musa. (2019). Critical discourse analysis of Donald Trump's tweets based on the Van Dyke model. Al-Zahra University Linguistics Quarterly, 12(34), 51-62. (In Persian)
  17. Karimi Fard, Hossein. (2017). Trump's foreign policy and the realities of the international system. Strategic Public Policy Studies Quarterly, 7(8), 14-25. (In Persian)
  18. Kazemi, Ali Asghar. (1995). Inverted Consciousness, Journal of Political and Economic Information, 14, 134-133. (In Persian)
  19. Khodavardi, Hassan, Ghafari Cherati, Ali Asghar. (2019). Analyzing Trump's Behavior from the Perspective of Layered Causal Analysis, Scientific Quarterly of International Relations Studies, 13(51), 14-25. (In Persian)
  20. Khosravi, Behnam., Gohari Moghadam, Abuzar. (2018). The prospect of US-North Korea negotiations in the Trump era until the 2020 US elections, International Media Research Journal, (In Persian)
  21. Khosravi, Hassan. (2021). Analysis and pathology of reports of United Nations agencies regarding human rights violations in North Korea. International Studies Quarterly, 17(4), 7-25. (In Persian)
  22. Larres, K. (2017). Donald Trump and America’s grand strategy: US foreign policy toward Europe, Russia and China.Global Policy, 1-19.
  23. Levy S. J. (2013) Psychology and Foreign Policy Decision Making, Rutgers University, The Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 2nd ed. Edited by Leonie Huddy, David O. Sears, and Jack S. Levy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, Available at:https://www.surrey.ac.uk/politics/research/researchareasofstaff/isppsu
  24. Maleki, Sara., Ismaili Sangri, Mohammad Hossein. (2019). Explanation of Donald Trump's foreign policy in dealing with the North Korean nuclear crisis: analysis of micro level variables. International Studies Quarterly, 17(1),1-19. (In Persian)
  25. Membini, Yaqub., Membini, Fariba. (2012). Theoretical model of transformational leadership based on political intelligence. Police Organizational Development, 46(12), 37-60. (In Persian)
  26. Nasel, D. D. (2004). Spiritual Orientation in Relation to Spiritual Intelligence: A Consideration of Traditional Christianity and New Age/individualistic Spirituality. Unpublished Thesis, Australia, the University of South Australia.
  27. Newyork Times. (2019). July, 27
  28. Overhaus, M., & Brozus, L. (2016).US foreign policy after the 2016 elections: Presidential contenders' opposing concepts and domestic political dynamics (No. 33/2016). SWP Comments.‏
  29. Padden, B. (2018). US Election Calendar Could Factor into N. Korea Talks. Available at: https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-election-calendar-could-factorn- korea-talks.
  30. Perrewe, P. L., Ferris, G. R., Frink, D. D., Anthony, W. P. (2000). Political Skill: An Antidote for Workplace Stressors. Academy of Management Executive, 14: 115 - 123.
  31. Pilar, Paul. (2016). Trump is not looking for political realism, Iranian diplomacy website: http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/1969310. (In Persian)
  32. Shahram Nia, Amir Masoud, Melai, Saber. (2010). Analysis of the effect of teachers' political awareness on participation in elections, Political Science Research Journal, 6(1). (In Persian)
  33. Shariatinia, Mohsen. (2017). Negotiating with America, the unsuccessful experience of North Korea, Islamic Council Research Center, 16118. (In Persian)
  34. Stone J. J. (2011) Catalytic Diplomacy: Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, New York, Catalytic Diplomacy.
  35. Suleimanzadeh, Saeed., Omidi, Ali., Barati, Sahar. (2017). Trump's foreign policy strategy: neo-isolationism-realism hybrid, Strategic Studies Quarterly, 8(28), 19-29. (In Persian)
  36. Tetlock, P. E. (1998) Social Psychology and World Politics, In D. Gilbert, S. Fiske, and G.
  37. Trump, D. (2015). Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again, Translator Mohtasham, S., Et.al. Tehran: Third Edition.
  38. Wright, Thomas. 2016. The 2016 presidential campaign and the crisis of US foreign policy. Available
  39. Yazdan Pham, Mahmoud. (2015). Trump's foreign policy and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 19(4), 88-98. (In Persian)

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics