Normalization of Saudi-Israeli Relations and its Impact on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s National Security: Threats Against the Axis of Resistance

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors

1 PhD. Student of International Relations Dep., Kish International Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kish, Iran.

2 Assistant Prof. at Political Science and International Relations Department, South Tehran Branch,, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Associate Prof. at Political Science Department, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

4 Professor of Department of International Relations, Faculty of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SIR)

Abstract

Western Asia is a crucial and conflict-ridden region in the world. A major conflict has been between Arabs and the Israeli regime, but Saudi Arabia- Israel relations have been normalizing since 2015. Iran, a state that holds Israel and some Arab countries as enemies, founded the “Axis of Resistance” to expand its influence and security in the region. However, the normalization of relations seems to have jeopardized the Axis of Resistance, which this study aimed to analyze. Accordingly, the study's main question was as follows: What threats does the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations pose against the Axis of Resistance, affecting the Islamic Republic of Iran’s national security? The significance of this descriptive-analytical study was in the fact that any developing threats against the Axis of Resistance expanding around the Islamic Republic can impact Iran’s national security. The results revealed that normalization of relations has led to threats against the Axis of Resistance, including supporting domestic, separatist, and opposition forces of the Islamic Republic in Iran and supporting regional and international anti-Axis of Resistance forces throughout the axis members, i.e., Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.

Highlights

Introduction

Western Asia, which Iran views as a region of civilization and which is known as the Middle East in international political geography, is a crucial and conflict-ridden part of the world. After World War II, the 1948 establishment of the State of Israel, at least three Arab-Israeli wars, and the Islamic Revolution of Iran all contributed to the escalation of the Arab-Israeli conflict. After Israel’s victory in the Yom Kippur War, the Arab leadership shifted from Egypt to Saudi Arabia, which proposed the ineffective Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 in an effort to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Nonetheless, post-Arab Spring regional conditions and Iran’s growing influence compelled Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies, under US pressure, to normalize relations with Israel. Most experts believe that this is a result of Iran’s decreasing influence and Iranophobia in an effort to weaken the Islamic Republic’s national security and strengthen the security on the opposite front, which was threatened by the gradual US withdrawal from the region. Based on the foregoing, this study aimed to investigate the impact of the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations on Iran’s national security.

 

Method

This was a descriptive-analytical study to examine the research hypothesis.

 

Findings

Islamic Republic’s national security in Iran depends on its regional influence, which is connected with the members of the Axis of Resistance. However, the normalization of relations between the Arabs, led by the Saudis, and Israel has posed several threats to the Axis of Resistance, which includes Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Ansar-Allah, Iraqi Shia militia groups, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Hamas.

Countries that have normalized relations with Israel try to discourage Iranians from protesting domestic conditions that they believe will lead to the Islamic Republic's downfall. At the regional level, they seek to mobilize the media and public opinion against the Resistance. At the international level, they have gained synergic power against Iran in international organizations and among western allies.

Moreover, the normalization of relations can distance Syria from Iran and the Axis of Resistance. Saudi Arabia pursues rebuilding its and its Arab allies’ ties with Syria. In this regard, Saudi Arabia has invested in war-torn Syria, which needs massive reconstruction funds. The closer Syria gets to Saudi Arabia, the more it will be driven away from Iran, which is in the interest of Israel. On the one hand, the Israeli regime has targeted the route supplying Hezbollah's logistics, while on the other, it seeks to push Resistance militias 200 kilometers away from its borders through scattered airstrikes.

Normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations has also led to negative results in Lebanon. This has prompted the US to recognize Hezbollah as a terrorist group and sanction Lebanon economically, resulting in the paralysis of the Lebanese economy and energy crisis. Saudi Arabia has attempted to expand its traditional influence over Hezbollah's rivals, which could result in a political deadlock in Lebanon. In addition, Israel has continued to occupy the Shebaa Farms in southern Lebanon.

In Gaza, Iran's dwindling influence in Syria and Lebanon threatens the supply of military aid, including missiles, to Hamas, posing a significant challenge to the Resistance. In addition, cooperation between Saudi and Israeli intelligence can effectively reduce Hamas's threat against Israel.

Regarding Iraq, normalization has given Saudi Arabia greater confidence in its political influence. An instance would be Shia groups of the Axis of Resistance rejecting Al-Kadhimi, Iraq’s prime minister, after many years. During Al-Kadhimi’s first foreign tour, Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab Persian Gulf states, promised investments for the reconstruction of Iraq. The increased Saudi influence in Iraq led to the division of Shias into the Sadrist movement (tending towards Iraqi nationalism) and the Resistance in the 2021 Iraq parliamentary elections. Enforcing the act of disarming and merging militias into the Iraqi army will be in the interest of Saudi Arabia and, ultimately, Israel.

Yemen is the site of an important intelligence alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This has been realized through the Socotra Archipelago, where Israel has established intelligence centers with the help of the UAE. More intelligence has been supplied to the Saudi coalition forces, setting off further attacks on Ansar-Allah. Using this intelligence, the US naval forces, in cooperation with the Arab-Israeli axis, have also seized many Iranian military aids from the Houthis.

 

Conclusion

The normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations has led to their support of domestic, separatist, and opposition forces in Iran as well as regional and international forces against the Axis of Resistance. These threats against the Resistance have inevitably impacted the national security of the Islamic Republic. They can be observed against the Islamic Republic regime in Iran, which is the leading member of the Axis of Resistance, and against Hezbollah, which is the oldest member of the Resistance, in Lebanon. The impact can also be seen in Syria, where the government has been dealing with civil war and where Arabs try to disrupt Iran-Syria ties by promises of investment, in Iraq by seeking to merge Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi into the army, and in Yemen by escalated attacks against the Houthis.

Keywords

Main Subjects

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