The Whys and Wherefores of the Continuation of Failed States in MENA: From Arab Spring to Coronavirus Disease

Document Type : Original Independent Original Article

Authors

• Arash Saeedi Rad ¹
• Mojtaba Esmaili ²
• Alimohammad Allakbaribanghoraey ³

¹ Master of Regional Studies, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

² PhD Student of Public Policy, Tehran branch of Center, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

³ Graduate of Seminary Level Three (M.A.) of Imam Kazem (AS) Institute, Qom, Iran

Abstract

Highlights

Introduction

MENA (the Middle East and North Africa) can be fairly deemed a region with certain international crises after the US invasion of Iraq, the 2011 awakening, and currently the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This has unbelievably led MENA to problems beyond conflicts, tensions, challenges, and rivalry. Certainly, the continuation of failed states is one of the most dangerous challenges accelerated by two historical waves, “the awakening” and coronavirus disease. Although many studies have been published on this critical juncture or vicious cycle, there is insufficient research on the challenges raised by the two waves of the awakening and coronavirus disease, which have had undeniable effects on the crises. Accordingly, it can be expected that the course of collapse and failure of states might lead to dominolike protests and violence in the region with the dysfunctional economic, social, and political-security systems in most MENA countries. Therefore, a decade after the awakening in the Middle East and North Africa, the region struggles with numerous problems including unemployment, corruption, dysfunctional economy, etc. Many experts and analysts in the region and other parts of the world dubbed the wave “the awakening”, the Arab Spring, “al-Sahwa”, and “al-Waie”, maintaining an optimistic view towards its development. However, with the passage of time, the region witnessed the multiplication of the challenges and difficulties. The situation peaked with the COVID-19 pandemic and the majority of the states that faced the two waves (the awakening and coronavirus disease) were on their way to collapse or failure. These states have failed in radical and efficient social, economic, political, and security changes, lacking sufficient progress and partial satisfaction (accepted by the people). Corruption and inefficiency have increased in the states and a new wave of awakening may be continued in the region as the economic, social, political, and security conditions have been exacerbated, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, giving rise to possible recurrent crises. The following includes a look into what has led these countries to collapse and failure after the wave of the awakening until the COVID-19 pandemic. The problems of these states have become regionalized, each posing other challenges to the region. Accordingly, the main question of this study was as follows: How have states dealing with the awakening and coronavirus disease have continued on the course of failed, weak, or bankrupt states and where are they headed?

Methodology

In this descriptive-analytical study, the data were collected through library, documentary, and Internet-based research.

Findings

The study hypothesis was that many of the MENA countries dealing with the awakening and coronavirus disease have remained on the course of failed and bankrupt countries due to leaving domestic problems in economic, social, cultural, political, and military fields unresolved. With insufficient progress in economic, health, and social fields, there is evident corruption and inefficiency, the negative effects of which will possibly be more or less observable in the next decade or decades. This study does not attempt to comprehensively explain all the ways that lead to failure of a state as various states and several histories all indicate that any failure and collapse can have distinctive elements. Unlike previous research, this study attempted to rank the failure or collapse of failed states confronted with the awakening and coronavirus disease, two waves that have had the most effect on the failure and collapse of states as the records show. Thus, this study aimed to determine the ranking of the states in terms of failure. The authors of this study concluded that the failure and weakness of these states are caused by the unresolved domestic problems in different economic, social, cultural, political, and health fields, placing the countries in groups representing their rank: A: countries that will possibly have better conditions in the next five years, B: countries that will have better conditions in the next 10 years, and C–F: countries that will face failure in the long term (from 15 to 30 years and even more). Overall, the ranking was devised top-down, from better to worse. The data used to design the ranking framework for failure in this study were not subjective and interest-seeking, they were rather documented by the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank and published in books and scientific articles.

Conclusion

The results demonstrated that over analysis has been focused on immediate issues concerning MENA, neglecting the chain threats posed by the failure of the awakening and the COVID-19 pandemic. This has prolonged failure and collapse, and it seems that the reasons behind the continuation of this vicious cycle have been unmanaged crises, absence of efficient economic changes, increase in unemployment, administrative corruption, decline of oil price, drop in tourism, drop in business activities, ethnical-religious gap, political inefficiency, etc. It also appears that the spread of coronavirus disease and populist promises have prevented this defective course from leading to widespread chain protests. However, with the passage of time, the region is set to witness calls for protests again.

Keywords

• MENA
• Arab Spring
• COVID-19
• Failed State
• Bankruptcy

Main Subjects

• Arabs
• Crisis
• Middle East
• State