The Model for Power Transition in China's Foreign Policy in the Era of Xi Jinping; With an Emphasis on Economy)

Document Type : Original Independent Original Article

Authors

ATU Faculty of Law and Political Sciences

Abstract

The power transition theory focuses on the dynamics of the international system and the evolution of power in the international system, and it believes that the international system is hierarchical, and that conflict and struggle for dominance are always possible. As one of the most prominent power transition theorists, Organski sees China's rise as one of the international system's realities, emphasizing that the power cycle is based on technological growth and power maturity, and at this stage, states use their various resources to transfer power, and China will be in a similar situation in the future. This study focused on this topic and attempted to explain China's rise using the power transition view during Xi Jinping's era and the country's three economic strategies. As a result, the central question of this research is what role Xi Jinping's economic strategies, such as "One Belt, One Road," "Made in China 2025," and "Launching China's Crude Oil Exchange Market based on Yuan," play in China's power transition? According to the findings of this study, while these three strategies are primarily economic in nature, they have significant political and security implications for China. Moreover, China's new leader has sought to advance China's grand hegemonic goals and power transition through these strategies. The analytical-descriptive methodology will be used to answer this question.

Highlights

Introduction

The power transition theory is one of the realist perspectives in international relations that focuses on the dynamics of the international system and the development of power and polarity in the international system, believing that the nature of the international system is hierarchical and that conflict between states is always possible and that states are always in a state of conflict. This power/politics-based theory rejects the view of the balance of power and assumes that the great powers in the international system always strive for and fight for supremacy in the international system. In contrast to the theory of balance of power, the Power Transition Theory takes a non-conservative approach to international competition and sees the international system as being in constant conflict. Organski sees China's rise as one of the international system's realities, emphasizing that in the future, China will be the main challenger to the international system, capable of overcoming the US and changing the international system's current state. According to Organski, the cycle of power is one of the constant realities of the international system and, as one of the international system's principles, is based on technological growth and maturity of power, and states use their various resources to transfer power, and China will find itself in such a situation in the future. This study focuses on this topic, and its main goal is to explain the problem of China's rise, based on power transition theory in the Xi Jinping period and three economic strategies of that country, and to demonstrate how ping used these three basic economic tools for the transfer of political power in the international system. As a result, the central question of this research is what role Xi Jinping's economic strategies, such as "One Belt, One Road," "Made in China 2025," and "Launching China's Crude Oil Exchange Market based on Yuan," play in China's power transition? These three strategies, which are economic in nature, have important political and security implications for China, according to the research hypothesis.

 

Methodology

This study aims to examine and test these political and international facts using an analytical-descriptive method and to analyze them through logical reasoning. After collecting data through desk studies, the author gathered research data and empirical evidence on research sheets and analyzed them using logical reasoning.

 

Results and Discussion

The economic strategies outlined in this study are essentially power transfer strategies, and China intends to advance its power transfer process through these mechanisms. The "One Belt and One Road" project establishes a network of economic links both in and sea for China, which could eventually increase China's political and security influence in these areas. The "Made in China 2025" project seeks the advancement of Chinese technology as a tool for increasing China's various levels of power, and the Chinese leader hopes to shape the development of new and modern aspects of Chinese power through this project. One of the main goals of this plan is to transform China into a modern country in the field of information technology and to upgrade its technological power, which will ultimately ensure its grand goals in the future. The Chinese Prime Minister emphasized that the Internet Plus model and startup development are the two main accelerators of the Made in China 2025 project, which can be effective in ensuring the plan's success. Finally, the "Launching China's Crude Oil Exchange Market based on Yuan" is an anti-hegemonic plan against the dominant power, the United States, in which China seeks to challenge US-created financial institutions by creating this new mechanism while also seeking to establish its own independent financial institutions. China has included Iran and Russia in its plan to form a bloc of opposition governments to the dollar. If these countries trade on the Yuan in the future, 5 million barrels per day will be exchanged in Yuan, causing a shock to the US dollar and increasing the value of the Chinese Yuan against the US dollar. In addition to Iran and Russia, countries such as Venezuela and Sudan have also expressed support for the plan, and it is expected that the plan can attract more supporters in the future.

 

Conclusion

China's international economic strategies are part of the country's hegemonic and power transition projects, paving the way for the promotion of China's international position in the international system. These strategies have received more attention during the Xi Jinping era, and the new Chinese leader has made every effort to revitalize the bygone empire using economic tools alongside political and military strategies. The three projects mentioned in this study were only a small part of Xi Jinping's economic strategies, and China has used other economic and financial mechanisms, such as international financial and economic institutionalization, financial aid to developing countries, and so on, which were not discussed in this study. Future studies are hence recommended to focus on these issues. Since China has utilized a combination of these economic strategies to consolidate its global power, this is an issue of great importance that cannot be ignored.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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