International Studies Journal (ISJ)

International Studies Journal (ISJ)

Never Again? Learning from September 11 to Improve Tomorrow’s Strategic Intelligence

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Author
Jenny K. Wright
مدیرعامل و بنیانگذار تحقیق و مشاوره 360 که به نمایندگی از بازیگران مختلف دولتی خصوصی و غیرانتفاعی از جمله دولت ایالات متحده، دولت سوئد و سازمان بین‌المللی مهاجرت، مشاوره و تحقیقاتی انجام داده است.
10.22034/isj.2019.253913
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to determine whether the most critical lessons learned from the terrorist attacks against the U.S. on September 11, 2001 have been applied in practice to improve the efficiency of the government institutions entrusted with counterterrorism. The scope of the research is limited to the study of the strategic intelligence capabilities of the U.S. intelligence community (IC) and its role in combating terrorism. This paper used the systems concept of cross-organizational isomorphism to support the argument that the lessons learned from the individual intelligence organizations within the IC can be applied community-wide through a process of active learning. Furthermore, it argues that sufficient application of these lessons can assist the development of active foresight, i.e. a proactive process through which early warning signs can be identified, actionable intelligence derived, and potential terror plots thwarted. A case study was conducted involving a series of consultations with experienced intelligence professionals to discuss systematic failures, paradigm shifts, and organizational improvements since these terrorist attacks. Finally, this paper concludes that while the IC learned significant lessons from the 9/11 attacks, more reforms and resources are needed to maintain the momentum and prevent another major terrorist attack against the U.S.
Keywords
Intelligence
Terrorism
National Security
Homeland Security
Government
Risk Management
Security
1.     Anderson, W and Poteat, G. (2010). A new paradigm for intelligence analysis. Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, 17(3), 113–114.
2.     Andrew, C., Aldrich, R. J and Wark, W. K. (2009). Secret intelligence: A reader. Routledge.
3.     Association of Former Intelligence Officers. (2011). Intelligence communities. Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, Winter/Spring, 48.
4.     Bamford, J. (2001). Body of secrets: Anatomy of the ultra-secret National Security Agency. Doubleday.
5.     Bellantoni, C. (2010). Obama says intelligence nation's first line of defense, but notes failings. Talking Points Memo. https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/obama-says-intelligence-nation-s-first-line-of-defense-but-notes-failings
6.     Bobbitt, P. (2008). Terror and consent: The wars of the twenty-first century. Penguin Books.
7.     Borch, F. (2003). Comparing Pearl Harbor and 9/11: Intelligence failure? - American unpreparedness? Military responsibility? The Journal of Military History, 67(3), 845–860.
8.     Bruneau, T. C. (2007). Introduction: Challenges to effectiveness in intelligence due to the need for transparency and accountability in democracy. Strategic Insights, 6(3).
9.     Builta, J. A. and Heller, E. N. (2011). Reflections on 10 years of counterterrorism analysis. Studies in Intelligence, 55(3), 1–12.
10.  Cole, D. and Lobel, J. (2007). Why we're losing the war on terror. The Nation.
11.  Coleman, C and Moynihan, J. (1996). Understanding crime data: Haunted by the dark figure. Open University Press.
12.  Davis, L., Wermuth, M., O'Cornell, K and Treverton, G. (2005). Terrorism and intelligence reform. In D. Aaron (Ed.), Three years after: Next steps in the war on terror (25–34). RAND Corporation. http://www.rand.org/publications/CF/CF212/
13.  Devine, J. (2009). Tomorrow's spygames. Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, 17(2), 17–27.
14.  DHS: Department of Homeland Security. (2006). Homeland Security Information Network could support information sharing more effectively (OIG-06-38). Department of Homeland Security, Office of Inspector General. http://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=464589
15.  DHS: Department of Homeland Security. (2019). Fusion centers. Intelligence & Analysis. https://www.dhs.gov/fusion-centers
16.  DNI: Director of National Intelligence. (2011). History of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. https://www.dni.gov/history.htm
17.  DNI: Director of National Intelligence. (2011). ODNI fact sheet. https://www.dni.gov/content/ODNI%20Fact%20Sheet_2011.pdf
18.  Dover, R and Goodman, M. S. (Eds.). (2009). Spinning intelligence: Why intelligence needs the media, why the media needs intelligence. Columbia University Press.
19.  Eldridge, T. R., Ginsburg, S., Hempel, W. T., II, Kephart, J. L., Moore, K. and Accolla, J. A. (2004). 9/11 and terrorist travel: Staff report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/911/staff_statements/911_TerrTrav_Monograph.pdf
20.  Elliot, M. (2002). Could 9/11 have been prevented? Time. http://www.time.com/time/nation/printout/0,8816,333835,00.html
21.  Fielding, N. (2009). Qualitative interviewing and ethnography. In N. Gilbert (Ed.), Researching social life. Sage.
22.  Gladwell, M. (2003). Connecting the dots: The paradox of intelligence reform. The New Yorker.
23.  Green, N. (2009). Formulating and refining a research question. In N. Gilbert (Ed.), Researching social life (43–62). Sage.
24.  Haberfeld, M. R and von Hassell, A. (Eds.). (2009). A new understanding of terrorism: Case studies, trajectories and lessons learned. Springer.
25.  Hart, C. (1999). Doing a literature review: Releasing the social science research imagination. Sage.
26.  Herman, M. (2002). Intelligence power in peace and war. Cambridge University Press.
27.  Iannotta, B. (2011). U.S. intel director outlines budget strategy. DefenseNews. http://www.defensenews.com/article/20111017/DEFSECT04/110170304/U-S-Intel-Director-Outlines-Budget-Strategy
28.  Johnson, L. K. (2003). Preface to a theory of strategic intelligence. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 16 (4), 638–663.
29.  Jones, J. L. (2002). Confronting an old enemy: Terrorism and the changing face of military intelligence (Research Report NNN/2002-04). Florida International University.
30.  Kaplan, L. (2011, December 12). Private interview with author.
31.  Keegan, J. (2004). Intelligence in war: Knowledge of the enemy from Napoleon to al-Qaeda. Pimlico.
32.  Knodel, J. (1993). The design and analysis of focus group studies: A practical approach. In D. Morgan (Ed.), Successful focus groups: Advancing the state of the art. Sage.
33.  Kristol, W. (2005). Victory in spite of all terror. The Weekly Standard, 10 (41).
34.  Lefebvre, S. (2004). The difficulties and dilemmas of international intelligence cooperation. International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, 16 (4), 527–542.
35.  Levitsky, M. (2002). Fighting terrorism: A new kind of enemy and a new kind of war. Defense Intelligence Journal, 11(1), 11–15.
36.  Likert, R. (1932). A technique for the measurement of attitudes. Archives of Psychology, 140.
37.  Marquise, R. A. (2012). Private interview with author.
38.  May, E. R. (1992). Intelligence: Backing into the future. Foreign Affairs, 71 (3), 63–72.
39.  Mazzetti, M. (2011). Detective work on courier led to breakthrough on Bin Laden. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/world/asia/02reconstruct-capture-osama-bin-laden.html
40.  Miceli, S. (2011). Private interview with professional.
41.  Miller, S. (2012). Private interview with professional.
42.  Nachmias, D and Nachmias, C. (1976). Research methods in the social sciences (2nd ed.). Edward Arnold.
43.  Napoleoni, L and Carisch, R. (2005). Terrorist finance. Confronting Terrorism, Vol. II: International Summit on Democracy, Terrorism and Security (27–32). Club de Madrid. http://english.safe-democracy.org
44.  National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. (2004). The 9/11 Commission report. W. W. Norton.
45.  Nordell, D. (2011). Private interview with founder and CEO of New Global Markets.
46.  Perkel, W. (2004). Money laundering and terrorism: Informal value transfer systems. American Criminal Law Review, 41, 183–213.
47.  Pillar, P. (2002). Fighting international terrorism: Beyond September 11th. Defense Intelligence Journal, 11(1), 17–26.
48.  Poteat, G. (2011). The importance of solid, accurate, actionable strategic and tactical intelligence – and the guts to convey it to leaders. Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies, 18(2), 3–4.
49.  Poteat, G. (2012). Private interview with author.
50.  Preobrazhensky, K. (2011). Private interview with public speaker and author.
51.  Ranelagh, J. (1992). CIA: A history. BBC Books.
52.  Reid, T. (2003). America's weapons evidence flawed, say spies. The Times. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0507-09.htm
53.  Reveron, D. S. (2006). Old allies, new friends: Intelligence-sharing in the war on terror. Defense Intelligence Journal. http://derekreveron.com/Documents/su04-reveron.pdf
54.  Reveron, D. S and Stevenson Murer, J. (Eds.). (2006). Flashpoints in the war on terrorism. Routledge.
55.  Roth, J, Greenburg, D and Wille, S. (2004). National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States: Monograph on terrorist funding. https://www.911commission.gov/staff_statements/911_TerrFin_Monograph.pdf
56.  Rustmann, F. W., Jr. (2012). Private interview with author.
57.  Ruth, L. M. (2012). Private interview with professional.
58.  Schmitt, E and Lipton, E. (2009). Officials point to suspect's claim of Qaeda ties in Yemen. The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/27/us/27terror.html
59.  Schultz, R. H and Vogt, A. (2003). It's war! Fighting post-11 September global terrorism through a doctrine of preemption. Terrorism and Political Violence, 15 (1), 1–30.
60.  Select Committee on Intelligence. (2011). Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence, United States Senate: Covering the period January 3, 2009 to January 4, 2011. https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/pdfs/1123.pdf
61.  Sellers, B. (2012, January 26). Private interview with author.
62.  Selltiz, C and Jahoda, M. (1962). Research methods in social relations. Holt, Rinehart and Winston.
63.  Shelfer, K. M and Verner, J. M. (2002). Improving counterterrorism analysis: Using scenarios to support the development and use of integrated information systems. Defense Intelligence Journal, 11(1), 55–70.
64.  Steven, G and Gunaratna, R. (2004). Counterterrorism. ABC-CLIO.
65.  Storbeck, J. (2005). Policing. Confronting Terrorism, Vol. II: International Summit on Democracy, Terrorism and Security (7–12). Club de Madrid. http://english.safe-democracy.org
66.  Tétreault, M. A. (1991). Autonomy, necessity, and the small state: Ruling Kuwait in the twentieth century. International Organization, 45(4), 565–591.
67.  U.S. Congress. (2002). The House Intelligence Committee report on counter-terrorism intelligence capabilities and performance prior to 9/11. U.S. Government Printing Office.
68.  Warner, M. (Ed.). (1994). CIA Cold War records: The CIA under Harry Truman. CIA History Staff, Center for the Study of Intelligence.
69.  White, J. (2002). Terrorism: An introduction (3rd ed.). Wadsworth Publishing.
70.  Wright, L. (2006). Looming tower: Al-Qaeda and the road to 9/11. Random House.