International Studies Journal (ISJ)

International Studies Journal (ISJ)

Modifying Charles Doran’s Power Cycle Theory: A Case Study of the United States

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors
Seiedeh Zahra Mousavi 1
Reza Jalali 2
Ali Mohammadzadeh 3
Amir Hooshang Mirkooshesh 3
1 Department of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran
2 Professor at International Relations Department, Faculty of Humanities, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Prof. at International Relations Dep., Faculty of Humanities, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran
10.22034/isj.2025.458433.2176
Abstract
This paper aims to examine and modify Charles Doran’s Power Cycle Theory by analyzing the impacts of emerging technologies on the international order and shifts in power. The main research question is: What are the new indicators for modifying the Power Cycle Theory, and how do these indicators affect the international order? The research hypothesis posits that emerging technologies, especially in the fields of artificial intelligence and communications, have the potential to significantly alter global power cycles and either reinforce or weaken the dominance of major powers. The theoretical framework of the paper is based on Doran’s Power Cycle Theory, which, by drawing on human biorhythm, analyzes power cycles in the international system and introduces new indicators. The research methodology is explanatory-analytical, involving the examination of data and historical trends to present a new model that evaluates the role of emerging technologies in transforming the international order and sustaining power. The results indicate that emerging technologies not only have the potential to cause fundamental changes in the global power structure but also make it increasingly necessary to revisit traditional theories of power and international order. Additionally, the study faces limitations such as the difficulty in accurately predicting the long-term impacts of technologies and the lack of access to some reliable data. Future research is suggested to focus on hybrid models that consider not only material and technological factors but also norms, culture, and beliefs to provide a more comprehensive picture of the future international order.

Highlights

Introduction

The concept of power has always been one of the most important and complex topics in social and political sciences. Different thinkers with different views and approaches have tried to explain the nature, origin, measurement, and distribution of power. One of these approaches is Charles Doran's theory of the power cycle, which examines how states emerge, rise, decline, and fall based on two main indicators, military and economic.

The main question of this research is what are the new indicators for adjusting the theory of the power cycle and what impact do they have on the international order and changes of power?

In the last few decades, the international system has witnessed significant changes that have affected its structures. The emergence of new actors, the emergence of new technologies, and their impact on all aspects of human life are among these changes. Accordingly, it seems necessary to investigate the effect of these changes on Charles Doran power cycle theory and provide a model for its adjustment.

 

Research Methodology

The level of analysis in this study is structural, and the purpose of this study is to explain the ways of moderating the theory of the power cycle and test it with the case study of the United States of America by examining the variables affecting the developments of the current international order. Also, this research seeks to determine the limitations of Charles Doran's power cycle model and provide solutions to overcome them. This research seeks to develop the theoretical theory of the power cycle.

The current research has used explanatory and analytical method with the aim of modifying the structure of Charles Duran's power cycle theory. While explaining the power cycle theory, by comparing the process of changes in the cycle of power in the international system and the process of changes in humans, this research added new indicators to the traditional indicators of the era and then looked for how emerging technologies can strengthen the superiority of the United States or transfer the power of the theory. Accelerate the power cycle.

 

Findings

Technologies have created significant effects on human life and society, and it is almost impossible to return to the space before technology. These effects include increasing the military and security capabilities of countries, changing the pattern of competition and cooperation between countries through virtual space, and increasing the power of software and influencing the cultures and values ​​of societies. Also, technologies bring new security challenges such as maintaining privacy in the digital world. Technologies play an important role in determining the position and role of governments in the international order and foreign policy. They have changed the concepts of security and power; Cyber ​​and data security has become as important as saving life and property. The value of computing power, parallel processing, communication power through satellite networks, data transfer speed, and decision-making power using advanced algorithms has become as critical as military and economic power.

The United States of America, as a leading global power, is trying to strengthen its position in the international system by taking advantage of these new technologies. In the military field, this country has invested heavily in the development and application of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and hypersonic weapons. These technologies can potentially strengthen US military superiority and cause a shift in the global balance of power.

Also, in the economic field, the United States is trying to maintain its dominance over the global economy with targeted investments in the fields of new technologies such as cryptocurrencies, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence. For example, the United States, by leading and influencing the digital currency market, can indirectly influence the economic flow of the world. On the other hand, the emergence of new players in the field of new technologies such as China and Russia

 

Results

The research results show that new technologies have the necessary potential as an important and influential indicator in all fields (economic, military, cultural, energy security, space security, etc.) to adjust the power cycle theory. Also, the United States of America is trying to establish its role and position in the international order by using emerging technologies.

This research shows that the new indicators for adjusting the power cycle theory include new technologies, increasing the role of non-state actors and developments in different fields (economic, military, cultural, etc.). These indicators can have a significant impact on international order and power changes. Also, the United States of America tries to stabilize its superiority or delay the transition of power in the cycle of power through the use of new technologies.

In general, this research seeks to develop the theory of the power cycle theory and shows that the traditional Duran model needs to be adjusted and revised in order to explain the new developments in the international system more effectively. The current research aims to modify the structure of Charles Duran's power cycle theory And the role of new technologies in it was investigated by focusing on the case study of the United States of America. The results of the research showed that new technologies as a new index in the power cycle theory can have a significant impact on the emergence, rise, decline and fall of governments in the international system.

In this regard, the United States of America, as a leading global power, is trying to strengthen its position in the international system by using new technologies in the military and economic fields. However, the emergence of new actors in the field of new technologies, such as China and Russia, can challenge the hegemonic position of America.

In sum, Charles Duran's power cycle theory needs adjustment and correction in order to properly explain the profound changes caused by new technologies in the international system. This requires the identification of new and dynamic indicators alongside traditional indicators that can fully and accurately represent the changing dynamics of power in the international arena.

Keywords
National Power
Power Cycle Theory
Modified Power Cycle Theory Model
Biorhythm Theory
Emerging Technologies
United States

Subjects

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