International Studies Journal (ISJ)

International Studies Journal (ISJ)

Effects of Domestic Political and Economic Factors on Realisation and Implementation of JCPOA

Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis

Authors
Aghil Naghshbandi 1
Mohmmadreza Dehshiri 2
Garineh Keshishyan Siraki 3
Mohamadreza Ghaedi 4
1 Department of International Relations, Kish International Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kish Island, Iran.
2 Professor at International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
3 Associate Prof. at Political Science and International Relations Dep., South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Assistant Prof. at Political Sciences and International Relations Dep., Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran.
10.22034/isj.2024.427111.2104
Abstract
Political and economic factors have played pivotal roles in realising and implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as well as the reinforcement of sanctions against the Iranian nuclear program. In other words, due to the defects and shortcomings rooted in JCPOA talks, the USA’s lack of adherence to this agreement, and Iran’s domestic political tensions in its implementation phase, the USA evaluated the cost of violating the JCPOA much lower than the other party. This paper seeks to determine the effects of domestic factors on the realisation and implementation of the JCPOA. For this purpose, a descriptive-analytical method and Rosenau’s five variables were employed to prove whether sanctions imposed by the USA led to the emergence of certain domestic political and economic factors in Iran. These factors have caused a serious obstacle to the Iranian state on the path to development. Therefore, all branches of Iran’s government must cooperate with the negotiation team to achieve a stable agreement and alleviate economic pressures on people, seeking to lift all sanctions through constructive proposals. However, the Islamic Republic of Iran has always adhered to its JCPOA obligations.

Highlights

Introduction

The Iranian nuclear program was supported by the West when it started before the Islamic Revolution. However, the same program under the Islamic Republic was opposed by the West. The Iran Nuclear Deal helped Iran and the West to reach a conclusion that their nuclear cooperation would breed further benefits and advantages like the pre-revolution era. However, there were certain defects and shortcomings in JCPOA talks that, along with Iran’s domestic political and economic factors, prevented its realisation and implementation. Accordingly, this paper aims to study and analyse the effects of those factors on the Iran Nuclear Deal regarded as one of the major topics in the I.R. Iran’s foreign policy after the Islamic Revolution. Therefore, in addition to considering various aspects of Iran’s domestic and foreign policies, this paper seeks to address all vicissitudes and domestic complications of the JCPOA.

For this purpose, the domestic political and economic obstacles to the realisation and implementation of the JCPOA are analysed and divided into five categories of personality, role, society, bureaucracy, and international system. This paper aims to determine the effects of Iran’s domestic political and economic factors on the realisation and implementation of the JCPOA. The research hypothesis is presented and proved through a descriptive-analytical method to see what significant effects domestic factors had on the success or failure of the JCPOA.

 

Methodology

This paper benefits from a descriptive-analytical method, Rosenau’s five variables, and a correlation approach to foreign policy. This approach consists of a microanalysis and a macroanalysis of foreign policy. The research data included primary data (e.g., available documents and reports) and secondary data (e.g., books and scientific papers published in scientific journals). James N. Rosenau’s model was used in this paper to discuss four factors: personal characteristics of decision-makers, their roles, states, and societal factors at a micro level. The international environment was then added to evaluate the roles of domestic factors and global factors in the formation and enforcement of foreign policy to practically present a kind of causal explanation in foreign policy.

 

Results and Discussion

Iran’s nuclear development program is considered the topic of a long-lasting international dispute outside the framework of relations between major powers after the Cold War. The six superpowers are directly involved in this dispute, something which makes it unique. The nuclear sanctions against Iran have affected not only Iran’s economy but also many other countries directly and indirectly. The nuclear crisis is an undeniable part of Iran’s contemporary history, having many political and economic repercussions. James N. Rosenau’s theory was employed in this paper to analyse the causes of these repercussions. In developing countries with open political and economic atmospheres, Rosenau’s variables are prioritised as role, society, bureaucracy, international system, and personality. However, these variables are considerably rearranged as personality, international system, role, society, and bureaucracy in small underdeveloped countries. According to Rosenau, the characteristics and behavior of every social system at any point in time stem from cultural tradition, changes in intrinsic and extrinsic environments, and different choices. Likewise, the choices and activities made by decision-makers are influenced by culture. Norms, historical background and tradition, wants, and demands stemming from both domestic and international systems are also influenced by culture. In Rosenau’s opinion, there is a wide spectrum of political, social, economic, cultural, and psychological trends that can have profound (restricting and empowering) impacts on the extrinsic behavior of society. In brief, as viewed generally in Rosenau’s theory, the extrinsic actions of countries are influenced by five factors: personality (i.e., personality traits and psychological, genetic, and biological characteristics of decision-making leaders), role (i.e., specific functions of every structural unit), government (i.e., the political structure of society that can be democratic, autocratic, open, closed, etc.), society (i.e., social merit, position, and status), and environmental variables (i.e., human and nonhuman aspects of the extrinsic environment in society). These five elements must be taken into account while analysing the foreign policy of a country. Combining micro and macro levels of these variables will help to perceive the foreign policy of a country comprehensively and realistically. Proposing the “former foreign policy theory” and “foreign policy continuum” models, James N. Rosenau provided a groundwork for linking a microanalysis and a macroanalysis to evaluate domestic and international factors involved in forming and enforcing foreign policy. In practice, Rosenau tried to provide a causal explanation in foreign policy. Regarding the implementation of the JCPAO, we can argue that the I.R. Iran not only complied with all obligations but also, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency, exceeded those obligations. However, the other party fulfilled only a minimum percentage of obligations (i.e., nearly 20%) in the most optimistic case.

 

Conclusion

Major political decisions must be made on lifting sanctions, making necessary arrangements, making Iran adherent, and requesting essential guarantees to reach a stable agreement. Despite compliance with the JCPOA, Tehran has shown no interest in returning to the nuclear deal without receiving any guarantee for lifting US sanctions since the USA left the deal. The most serious point of conflict is Iran’s demand for such a guarantee regarding this deal and its economic perks in case the USA leaves it again. In other words, Iran cannot afford to take the risk of falling into the same trap without protecting its economy from the next rounds of US sanctions. Moreover, various political and economic obstacles to the JCPOA emerging from the multiplicity of Iran’s political and nonpolitical institutions have prevented the success of this deal. Trump’s unilateralism in exiting the JCPOA and imposing maximal sanctions also had profound impacts on Iran’s economy, becoming known as a factor hindering the implementation of this deal. Therefore, Iran needs to take at least four actions to resolve economic issues and score a triumph. These actions include reviving the JCPOA to have economic sanctions lifted and change the international atmosphere, resolving problems and enhancing international relations in the Middle East, privatising the national economy, and setting efficient rules to attract tens of millions of Iranians abroad. These actions require governmental decisions.

Keywords
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
foreign policy
nuclear energy
de-escalation policy
foreign investment

Subjects

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