Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis
Highlights
Introduction
Security in any region is shaped by its geographical location and inherent potential, while aligning with broader security concerns similar to those of other regions. West Asia, due to its strategic geography and energy resources, is a focal point of interest and conflict among regional and global powers. Each actor in this region strives to manage the dynamics to maximize their interests. This continuous tension has driven regional countries to significantly expand their military capabilities and equipment. Given Israel’s military superiority and the U.S.’s advanced air force, missile weapons have gained particular importance. Developing and utilizing a wide range of missiles for military and defensive purposes, as advanced indigenous technology, provides effective deterrence in the security domain. The Islamic Republic of Iran aims to achieve its strategic and military-defensive objectives, particularly in maintaining a power balance in West Asia, through comprehensive deterrence and security via missile capabilities, without needing to strengthen conventional defenses. Iran leverages space systems and domestically produced missiles for future wars. Iran’s missile program has consistently attracted the attention of its rivals and adversaries, prompting opponents to take numerous actions against it. The U.S. strategy against regional powers in West Asia, like Iran, employs balancing mechanisms. Various sanctions imposed on Iran are examples of the U.S. using negative balancing against the Islamic Republic. Some of these sanctions are secondary sanctions, applied to entities or individuals engaging with the sanctioned country. Therefore, secondary sanctions can indirectly impact the targeted country in multiple aspects. This research aims to understand and explain the effects of U.S. Congressional secondary sanctions on Iran’s missile defense program. Reducing errors for Iranian policymakers and elites in the defense and security sectors is crucial for developing defensive power, adopting appropriate policies and strategies in missile development, understanding U.S. Congressional secondary sanctions, and mitigating their negative impacts on the missile defense program. Conversely, a lack of understanding of U.S. secondary sanctions mechanisms leads to ambiguity and confusion among elites, weakening Iran’s missile power and causing strategic surprises. These factors underscore the significance of this research.
Methodology
This applied research is a qualitative study employing thematic analysis. The research population comprises experts in international relations, international security, and national defense. Sixteen faculty members from Iranian universities, specializing in international relations, international law, international security, and national defense, were purposefully selected using the snowball sampling technique. The research tool involved in-depth exploratory interviews. After conducting the interviews, the contents were transcribed verbatim. Thematic analysis was then employed to analyze the interview data and relevant literature. Among the different approaches to thematic analysis, this study specifically used the King and Horrocks approach.
Findings
In this phase, approximately 120 descriptive (initial) codes were identified and tagged in descriptive coding by the researcher after transcribing the interviews. In the interpretive coding stage (initial themes), efforts were made to go beyond describing text propositions and focus on interpreting their meanings. This often involved merging descriptive codes that seemed to share a single meaning. In this stage, 13 interpretive codes (initial themes) were presented. Finally, during the integration stage (main themes), broad themes were identified, representing the core concepts of the research. From the 13 interpretive codes identified in the previous stage, four main themes emerged.
| Interpretive Code (Initial Theme) | Main Theme |
|
Restrictions on equipment imports Restrictions on vital technologies Restrictions on access to technical knowledge Restrictions on communication technologies |
Restricting Access to Technology |
|
Disruptions in supply chain Increase in research and development costs Depreciation of the national currency Increase in costs for information protection |
Increasing Costs |
|
Prohibition of research and development Diversion of scientists to non-missile fields |
Limiting Access to Expert Workforce |
|
Design, development, and production of various ballistic missiles Design, development, and production of various cruise missiles Development of specific capabilities in various missiles |
Localization of Missile Technology to Enhance Deterrence Capabilities |
Table 1: Interpretive coding (initial theme) and main themes
(Source: Researcher)
Results
The study’s findings indicate that secondary sanctions, such as those imposed by the ISA law and UN Resolution 2223, have restricted access to technology and specialized human resources. As a result, Iran has increasingly relied on informal networks and black markets to obtain raw materials, electronic equipment, chemicals, and specialized labor for missile production, though this has led to higher production costs. Despite these challenges, Iran’s missile programs have not been significantly impeded. Instead, the imposition of secondary sanctions may have inadvertently spurred efforts to localize the missile industry and reduce dependency on imports. Today, Iran’s missile capabilities have become a central element of the country’s defensive power. Recent progress highlights the strengthening and modernization of the missile industry, marked by continuous innovation and adaptation to operational needs and contemporary technologies. This enhanced capability has effectively deterred numerous transnational threats and signaled a strong warning to both regional and extra-regional actors against aggression toward Iran. Iran’s latest missile operation, “Operation True Promise,” carried out on April 13, 2024, approximately two weeks after the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, exemplifies the advanced state of Iran’s missile technology and defensive production. According to Iran’s Supreme Leader, this operation was a response to the attack and underscores the effectiveness and sophistication of Iran’s missile capabilities.
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