International Studies Journal (ISJ)

International Studies Journal (ISJ)

Scenarios for Energy Security of South Caucasus and Southeast Europe

Document Type : Original Independent Original Article

Authors
Amir Mohammad Moghani 1
Abbas Maleki 2
1 Ph.D student of energy governance, Faculty of governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Energy, Sharif University of Technology
10.22034/isj.2024.432022.2120
Abstract
Energy security is a critical issue for countries around the world, as access to reliable and affordable energy resources is essential for economic growth and development. However, the global energy landscape is rapidly changing, with shifting demand patterns, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about climate change all impacting energy security. An unreliable energy supply leads to volatility of energy prices, which damages businesses and consumers. Therefore, the research aims to examine the energy security of Southeast Europe and the South Caucasus, because the energy security of these two regions is dependent on each other. We have used Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to examine the energy security indicators and how these indicators changed between 2012 to 2022. The research analysis is based on the 15 indicators that affect current and future energy security trends. In addition, the future scenarios developed by the Global Business Network (GBN). The findings show that Gross Domestic Production (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), gasoline price, and greenhouse emissions are significant factors in the regions between 2012 and 2022. Therefore, four scenarios emerged: Crystalline Sky, Anarchy is the first word, Cloudy days, and the Apricity of the economy.
Keywords
Grey Relational Analysis
South Caucasus
Southeastern Europe
Energy Security
Global Business Network
Subjects
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