Document Type : Original Article from Result of Thesis
Authors
1 PhD Student of International Relations Department, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University. Shahroud, Iran.
2 Professor of Political Science at Allameh Tabatabai University
3 Professor of Political Science, University of Tehran
4 Assistant Professor of Political Science Department, Shahrood Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shahrood, Iran
Abstract
Highlights
Introduction
Using descriptive-analytical methods and library research of books, articles, reports, newspapers, and Internet-based sources, this study aims to discover the effect of political intelligence and mindfulness on decisions and securing national interests. Given the intricacies and obstacles of US-North Korean relations, this study will use comparative analysis to gain insight into both political leaders’ political intelligence and awareness during the Trump administration in order to appropriately explain its implications on bilateral relations.
Methodology
This qualitative study employed an interpretive-comparative methodology based on data collected using library research. The data collected from the US president's books, articles, and tweets were then analyzed. According to the research hypothesis, North Korean and US leaders’ decisions were affected by political intelligence and mindfulness.
Findings
Kim Jong-un is a follower of scientific socialism, a pillar of the North Korean Revolution. This new school of thought considers nuclear technology as essential to North Korea’s self-reliance approach to reacting to foreign threats, as well as a symbol of North Korean development and national pride.
Donald Trump’s personality traits are not limited to his actions. Even in social, economic, and political actions, his speeches and behaviors make it necessary to pay special attention to his personology in terms of political psychology, mindfulness, political intelligence, and how it matches the United States’ domestic and foreign policy, especially vis-à-vis North Korea.
Given North Korea’s insignificant influence on the US economy, Donald Trump’s frequent verbal attacks were less costly for the United States than other countries, giving him the leverage to discuss North Korea freely. In his first speech on North Korea, Trump labeled the country a rogue state, mirroring the George W. Bush administration’s action to instigate change in the North Korean regime’s policies.
Considering Trump’s goal to demonstrate domestic success and North Korea’s goal to achieve international prestige and minimize sanctions, both sides needed to negotiate at this level.
First, the North Korean leader formulated a 5-year plan and stressed stability and the need to respect the opinions of the military staff. To upgrade military power, he focused on nuclear capabilities and arming intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads for optimal deterrence, an objective that was unaffected by Trump’s election or defeat. Trump used these events and North Korea’s plan for his self-interest and stressed the danger posed by the country. In fact, the Trump administration was distinguished by North Korea’s attainment of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could target US soil, leading to negotiations.
Results
Regarding political intelligence, Trump’s personality traits somewhat influenced his decisions on the North Korean crisis. Given people’s exaggerated interpretations of their role, important political decisions by Donald Trump include sanctions, threats, negotiations with North Korea, and the cancellation of US-South Korea drills. Meanwhile, having realized the futility of pressure, the White House decided to take increased pressure, tensions, and threats off the table at least until the 2020 presidential elections. Implementing maximum pressure on North Korea would have meant accepting the failure of Trump’s policies, which would have unfavorably affected the White House near the election. Therefore, he maintained pressure at its current level and prepared for the next round of negotiations, which never took place as North Korean leaders stayed out of Trump’s election game.
The decision by North Korean leaders has national and international consequences. First, it strengthened national pride; second, the North Korean people are concerned about the future of economic pressure and even a military attack from the United States; and third, it has legitimized and secured power in the Kim dynasty. Thus, North Korean leaders have high political intelligence for controlling their people at the national level. Internationally, the decisions by North Korean leaders gave the nation bargaining power and deterrence. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has left this situation unsettled due to America’s strategic interests in East Asia and the security dilemma precipitated by North Korea's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles. As a result, North Korean leaders' political intelligence led to their rejection of nuclear disarmament, and the difference in political intelligence has overshadowed bilateral US-North Korean relations.
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