ناکامی‌های سناریوی گسترش پله‌ای تسلیحات: چشم انداز روابط ایران و عربستان سعودی

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسندگان

1 San Francisco State University University of California, Berkeley

2 پژوهشگر دانشگاه کالیفرنیا

چکیده

این مقاله استدلال می‌کند که مسابقه تسلیحاتی در خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا کاذب و نادرست است و بعید به نظر می‌رسد که به ثبات بیشتر بیانجامد. شواهد قابل توجهی در دست است که نشان می‌دهد خطر مسابقه تسلیحاتی و آنچه که "گسترش پله‌ای" خوانده می‌شود، بهانه‌ای ساختگی است و به منظور خنثی کردن تفاهم هسته‌ای ایران با گروه 5+1 انجام می‌شود. استدلال اصلی این است که مسابقه تسلیحاتی رقابت منطقه‌ای را گسترش می‌دهد و ممکن است در ظاهر درست باشد، اما با واقعیت سازگار نیست. در حال حاضر، رقابت تسلیحاتی میان عربستان سعودی و ایران وجود ندارد. ساخت یک طرفه تسلیحات این وضعیت را بهتر نشان می‌دهد، هزینه نظامی عربستان سعودی به شکل قابل توجهی از هزینه نظامی ایران فراتر رفته است، این در حالیست که ایران نیز گرچه با عربستان در رقابت بوده اما بر خلاف عربستان سعودی نه از طریق افزایش هزینه‌های نظامی. در حالی‌که به لحاظ تئوریک می‌توان ادعا کرد که کارآمدی در تدارکات تسلیحاتی می‌تواند به دستاوردهای واقعی توانایی نظامی بیانجامد- که اغلب با هزینه نظامی ثابت پنهان می‌شود- اما نمی‌توان شواهد متعدد و محکمی برای اثبات این ادعا یافت.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Flaws of the Proliferation Cascade Scenario: Iran-Saudi Relations in Perspective

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Monshipouri 1
  • William Chu 2
1 International and Area Studies University of California, Berkeley
2 Research Assistant University of California, Berkeley
چکیده [English]

This paper argues spiral arms race in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is spurious and highly unlikely to lead to further stability.  There is substantial evidence to suggest that the threat of arms race and the so-called “proliferation cascade” is a bogus excuse to thwart Iran’s nuclear deal with the “P5+1” group.  Our central argument is that the notion that arms race intensifies regional rivalries may seem reasonable on its face, but it fails to match reality. Arguably, an arms race does not currently exist between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The situation can be more accurately described as a one-sided arms buildup where Saudi Arabia has out-spent Iran by colossal amounts while Iran has worked to compete with Saudi Arabia without a corresponding increase in military spending. While it is possible in theory that improved efficiency in the procurement of arms could result in real military capability gains—often disguised by stable military expenditure—there isn’t ample evidence to support the idea that this is indeed the case.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Arms Race
  • military expenditure
  • Nuclear Deal
  • military capability
  • military strategy
  • domestic threat

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