جنگ داخلی سوریه: مدیریت مبادلات اجتناب ناپذیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسندگان

1 استاد در مطالعات بین المللی و منطقه ای دانشگاه کالیفرنیا ، برکلی

2 معاون تحقیقات علوم سیاسی دانشگاه کالیفرنیا ، برکلی ، ایالات متحده.

چکیده

جغرافیای سیاسی پیچیده و چند وجهی امروز در سوریه و خاورمیانه، شرایط را برای ایالات متحده آمریکا و متحدان غربی و منطقه‌ای آن که خواستار برکناری رژیم اسد هستند، بسیار دشوار کرده است. مسلما خروج اسد از قدرت در شرایط کنونی به دلیل نتایج ناشناخته‌ای که در پی خواهد داشت، یک اشتباه حساس تلقی می‌شود. در این نوشتار، ما به بحث در رابطه با فقدان یک استراتژی دقیق و جامع برای آینده توسط قدرت های غربی در صورت برکنار شدن اسد از قدرت می‌پردازیم، و بررسی خواهیم کرد که چگونه این مسئله می‌تواند به مشکلات بیشتر و پیچیده‌تر منجر شود. پس از آن، نقش سوریه به عنوان منطقه‌ای برای رقابت استراتژیک بسیاری از قدرت‌های منطقه و جهان، و نقش اسد در تشدید رقابت میان این قدرت‌ها را تجزیه و تحلیل می‌کنیم. در نهایت، نتیجه‌ی حاصله این است که تعداد زیادی از مبادلات اجتناب‌ناپذیر در پایان دادن به جنگ داخلی سوریه وجود دارد. اما در حال حاضر تهدید در حال رشد داعش و راه‌های مقابله با آن در اولویت بالاتری نسبت به تغییر رژیم سوریه قرار دارد. در ادامه، این نوشتار گزینه‌های غیرخشونت‌آمیز نسبت به مداخله نظامی/ اعتصاب در سوریه را تشریح می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Syria Civil War: Managing Inevitable Trade-offs

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Monshipouri 1
  • Chris Bulut 2
1 Prof. at International and Area Studies University of California, Berkeley
2 Research Assistant Political Science Department University of California, Berkeley,US.
چکیده [English]

 
The complex and multi-faceted geopolitical environment created in Syria and the Middle East today makes it extremely difficult for the United States and its Western and regional allies to continue its policy of calling for the removal of the Assad regime. Arguably, Assad’s departure from power at this time would prove to be a critical mistake, with the scope of its ramifications largely unknown. In this essay, we will engage first in discussing the lack of a detailed and comprehensive day-after strategy by Western powers to be implemented in Syria, should Assad be removed, and how this could lead to a multitude of complicated problems. We will then analyze Syria’s role as a showground of strategic competition between many regional and world powers, and how Assad’s departure could result in a much more intensified rivalry between and among these powers. We conclude that there are many inevitable trade-offs involved in ending the Syrian civil war, but that for now the growing threat ISIS poses to the world renders defeating the Islamic State a higher priority over advocating a regime change in Syria.  Moving forward, the essay examines nonviolent alternatives to the military intervention/strike in Syria. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Ba’thism
  • Alawites
  • Uprisings
  • Civil War
  • Free Syrian Army
  • al-Nusra Front
  • Salafi-Jihadists
[1]. Raymond Hinnebusch, “Syria,” in Ellen Lust, ed., The Middle East, 14th Ed., Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2017, pp. 781-807; see pp. 790-791.
[1]. Ibid., p. 791.
[1]. Ibid., p. 792.
[1]. Fanar Haddad, “Sectarian Relations and Sunni Identity in Post-Civil War Iraq,” in Lawrence G. Potter, ed., Sectarian Politics in the Persian Gulf, New York: Oxford University Press, 2014, pp. 67-115; see p. 83.
[1]. Anshel Pfeffer, "Why the Arab Spring Failed: Choosing Survival over Chaos." Haaretz. Haaretz, 20 Jan. 2016. Web. 2 Aug. 2016.
[1]. "Syria's Civil War Explained." Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, 24 May 2016. Web. 2 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mahmood Monshipouri, Claude Welch, and Khashayar Nikazmrad. "Protecting Human Rights in the Era of Uncertainty: How Not to Lose the War against ISIS." Journal of Human Rights (2016): 1.Taylor & Francis Online. Web. 1 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Steven Lee Myers. "U.S. and Allies Say Syria Leader Must Step Down."The New York Times. The New York Times, 18 Aug. 2011. Web. 03 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mohammed Ayoob,Will the Middle East Implode? Cambridge, UK: Polity, 2014. 98. Print.
[1]. Samer Abboud, "Introduction." Syria. United Kingdom: Polity Press, 2016. 5. Print.
[1]. Stephen Starr. Revolt in Syria: Eye-witness to the Uprising. New York: Columbia UP, 2012. 53. Print.
[1]. "Syria's Profile-Timeline." BBC News. BBC News, 6 May 2016. Web. 3 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mohammed Ayoob, op. cit., p. 11.
[1]. Ibid., p. 168.
[1]. Tony Badran, "Alawistan." Foreign Policy Alawistan Comments. FP News, 27 July 2012. Web. 03 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mohammed Ayoob, op. cit., p. 1.
[1]. Ibid.
[1]. "U.S. Defense Chief: Syria Military Must Remain Intact When Assad Goes." Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 30 July 2012. Web. 03 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mahmood Monshipouri, Democratic Uprisings in the New Middle East: Youth, Technology, Human Rights, and US Foreign Policy. Boulder: Paradigm, 2014. 156. Print.
[1]. Ibid.
[1]. Paul MclLeary, Paul. "The Pentagon Wasted $500 Million Training Syrian Rebels. It’s About to Try Again." Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy, 18 Mar. 2016. Web. 5 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mohammed Ayoob, op. cit., p 5.
[1]. Neil MacFarquhar, “Russia and Turkey Vow to Repair Ties as West Watches Nervously,” The New York Times, August 10, 2016, p. A6.
[1]. Raymond Hinnebusch, “The Foreign Policy of Syria,” in Raymond Hinnebusch and Anoushiravan Ehteshami, eds., The Foreign Policies of Middle East States, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2014, pp. 207-232; see p. 230.
[1]. Ibid., pp. 230-231.
[1]. Joseph Nye, “The Intervention Dilemma,” Al Jazeera, June 13, 2012, Global Policy Forum, available at
[1]. Barak Barfi, "The Real Reason Why Iran Backs Syria." The National Interest. The National Interest, 24 Jan. 2016. Web. 4 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Luke Coffey, "Russia's Emerging Naval Presence in the Mediterranean." Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera, 27 May 2016. Web. 4 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Rick Gladstone, "Friction at the U.N. as Russia and China Veto Another Resolution on Syria Sanctions." The New York Times. The New, 19 July 2012. Web. 5 Aug. 2016.
[1]. "Turkey Condemns Russia, Assad Regime for Hitting Civilian Targets in Aleppo." Hurriyet Daily News. Hurriyet, 9 June 2016. Web. 4 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Mohammed Ayoob, op. cit., p. 99.
[1]. Nicole Gaouette, "US Adds ISIS Affiliates to Terror List." CNN. Cable News Network, 19 May 2016. Web. 05 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Stephen M. Walt, “ISIS as Revolutionary State,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2015, available at
[1]. Daniel Byman, “Six Bad Options for Syria,” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 4, Winter 2016, pp. 171-186; see p. 180.
[1]. Ibid.
[1]. Dennis B. Ross and Andrew J. Tabler. "The Case for (Finally) Bombing Assad." The New York Times. The New York Times, August 3, 2016. Web. 3 Aug. 2016.
[1]. Kenneth M. Pollack, “US Policy Toward a Turbulent Middle East,” March 24, 2015, available at
[1]. Philippe Droz-Vincent, “The Military amidst Uprisings and Transitions in the Arab World,” in Fawaz A. Gerges, ed., The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014, pp. 180-208; see p. 205.
[1]. Scott Anderson and Paolo Pellegrin, “Fractured Lands,” The New York Time Magazine, August 14, 2016, pp. 4-58; see p. 36.
[1]. Rania Abouzeid, “Who Will Control the Syrian Rebels’ Guns?” The New Yorker, June 14, 2013, available at
[1]. Philippe Droz-Vincent, op. cit., p. 204.
[1]. Ibid., p. 205.
[1]. Richard W. Mansback and Kirsten L. Taylor, Challenges for America in the Middle East, Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2017, p. 104.
[1]. Steven W. Hook and John Spanier, American Foreign Policy Since World War II, 20th Edition, Los Angeles, CA: Sage, 2016, p. 313.
[1]. Nicholas Kristof, “Obama’s Worst Mistake,” The New York Times, August 11, 2016, p. A21.
[1]. Christopher Harmer, “U.S. Options for a Syria No-Fly Zone,” Institute for the Study of War, November 2, 2015, available at
[1]. Tara Copp, “Pentagon Hesitant to Commit to No-Fly Zone, Given Challenges,” Stars and Stripes, November 24, 2015, available at a<<http://www.stripes.com/news/pentagon-hesitant-to-commit-to-no-fly-zone-given-challenges-1.380304>>.  Accessed on August 11, 2016.
[1]. Ibid.
[1]. Ibid.
[1].  Bassam Haddad, “Syria, the Arab Uprisings, and the Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience,” in Clement Henry & Jang Ji-Hyang, eds., The Arab Spring: Will It Lead to Democratic Transitions? Seoul, Korea: The Asian Institute for Policy Studies, 2012, pp. 211-226; see p. 225.
[1]. MintPress News, “US Clocks up $33 Billion Arms Sales in Eleven Months from Wars in the Middle East,” MintPress News Desk, April 1, 2016, available at << http://www.mintpressnews.com/us-clocks-33-billion-arms-sales-eleven-months-wars-middle-east/215269/>>.  Accessed on August. 16, 2016.
[1]. Neil MacFarquhar and David E. Sanger, “In a First, Russia uses an Iran Base for its Syria Campaign,” The New York Times, August 16, 2016, available at
[1]. “What Russia and Turkey Bring to Syria,” an editorial piece in The New York Times, August 11, 2016, p. A20.
[1]. Khalid Koser, “IPs, Refugees, and Violent Extremism: From Victims to Vectors of Change,” Brookings, Feb. 20, 2015, available at <<https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/02/20/idps-refugees-and-violent-extremism-from-victims-to-vectors-of-change/>>.  Accessed on August 17, 2016.
[1].  Fawaz Gerges, “The Evolution of Islamic Movements,” in Clement Henry & Jang Ji-Hyang, eds., The Arab Spring: Will It Lead to Democratic Transitions? Seoul, Korea: The Asian Institute for Policy Studies, 2012, pp. 135-140; see p. 138.
[1]. Seyed Hossein Mousavian, “To Solve the Syrian Crisis, We Need to Overcome These Three Obstacles,” The Worldpost, December 7, 2015, available at <<http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seyed-hossein-mousavian/syria-crisis-obstacles_b_8740514.html>>.  Accessed on August 17, 2016.
[1]. Ibid.