جنگ داخلی سوریه: مدیریت مبادلات اجتناب ناپذیر

نوع مقاله: مقاله مستقل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد در مطالعات بین المللی و منطقه ای دانشگاه کالیفرنیا ، برکلی

2 معاون تحقیقات علوم سیاسی دانشگاه کالیفرنیا ، برکلی ، ایالات متحده.

چکیده

جغرافیای سیاسی پیچیده و چند وجهی امروز در سوریه و خاورمیانه، شرایط را برای ایالات متحده آمریکا و متحدان غربی و منطقه‌ای آن که خواستار برکناری رژیم اسد هستند، بسیار دشوار کرده است. مسلما خروج اسد از قدرت در شرایط کنونی به دلیل نتایج ناشناخته‌ای که در پی خواهد داشت، یک اشتباه حساس تلقی می‌شود. در این نوشتار، ما به بحث در رابطه با فقدان یک استراتژی دقیق و جامع برای آینده توسط قدرت های غربی در صورت برکنار شدن اسد از قدرت می‌پردازیم، و بررسی خواهیم کرد که چگونه این مسئله می‌تواند به مشکلات بیشتر و پیچیده‌تر منجر شود. پس از آن، نقش سوریه به عنوان منطقه‌ای برای رقابت استراتژیک بسیاری از قدرت‌های منطقه و جهان، و نقش اسد در تشدید رقابت میان این قدرت‌ها را تجزیه و تحلیل می‌کنیم. در نهایت، نتیجه‌ی حاصله این است که تعداد زیادی از مبادلات اجتناب‌ناپذیر در پایان دادن به جنگ داخلی سوریه وجود دارد. اما در حال حاضر تهدید در حال رشد داعش و راه‌های مقابله با آن در اولویت بالاتری نسبت به تغییر رژیم سوریه قرار دارد. در ادامه، این نوشتار گزینه‌های غیرخشونت‌آمیز نسبت به مداخله نظامی/ اعتصاب در سوریه را تشریح می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


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