غرب تقسیم شده و شرق در حال طلوع

نوع مقاله: مقاله مستقل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشگاه ایالتی سانفرانسیسکو و مدرس دانشگاه برکلی

2 استاد روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه مسیحی تگزاس

چکیده

بررسی پیامدهای کاهش و رکود ممکن نظام لیبرال با تمرکز بر عوامل  تقسیم کننده جهان غرب، به ویژه افزایش سمی ناسیونالیسم، بومی گرایی، پوپولیسم، استبداد، ضد نهاد گرایی ، ضد مهاجر و ضد جهانی شدن احساسات، موضوع اصلی این مقاله است. ما استدلال می کنبم که در حالی که ایالات متحده پذیرای ناسیونالیسم اقتصادی بیشتر و حمایت از ملی گرایی در دولت ترامپ است، حمایت از نهادهای چند جانبه، که ریشه در نظم لیبرال دارند، به احتمال زیاد به طور قابل ملاحظه ای عقب نشینی خواهد کرد. انحلال نظم لیبرال مسلما راه را برای اختلال سیاسی در سراسر جهان باز خواهد کرد، و در همان زمان، تقسیم جهان غرب در دوره اتحاد چین با روسیه تحت رهبری پوتین به احتمال زیاد برای غرب چالش های جدیدی ایجاد می کند. با وجود رقابت آنها ، پکن و مسکو به دنبال راه هایی برای بهبود روابط دوجانبه با واشنگتن به منظور محدود کردن و مدیریت بهتر تنش کلی منطقه ای خواهند بود. شایان ذکر است که خطرات ناشی از رها کردن یک نظام لیبرال، که برای بیش از هفت دهه رفاه نسبی به همراه داشته است، و همچنین به عنوان چارچوبی قانونی و سازمانی برای حل تعارض بوده است، میتواند بسیار مخرب باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


[1] Ivo H. Daadlar and James M. Lindsay, “The Committee to Save the World Order: America’s Allies Must Step Up as America Steps Down,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 97, No. 6, November/December 2018, pp. 72-83; see especially p. 81.

2 Richard Haass, “How World Order Ends: And What It Comes in Its Wake?” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 98, No. 1, January/February 2019, pp. 22-30; see especially p. 27.

3  Ibid., pp. 27-29.

4 Delphine Strauss, “Brexit Explainer: What’s at Stake for EU Single Market and Custom Union,” Financial Times, October 9, 2018, available at << https://www.ft.com/content/1688d0e4-15ef-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e>>.  Accessed on December 23, 2018.

5 Jim Zarroli, “How Will Brexit Affect London’s Status as a Global Financial Center,” National Public Radio, June 27, 2016, available at << https://www.npr.org/2016/06/27/483665241/how-will-brexit-results-affect-londons-status-as-a-global-financial-center>>.  Accessed on December 23, 2018.

6 Alex Hunt and Brian Wheeler, “Brexit: All You Need to Know About the UK Leaving the EU,” BBC News, January 8, 2019, available at << https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887>>.  Accessed on January 10, 2019.

7 Michael Jansen, “The Yellow Vests,” The Gulf Today, January 4, 2019, available at << http://gulftoday.ae/portal/e9c01f95-4f53-438a-84dd-195c9014f32c.aspx>>.  Accessed on January 12, 2019.

8 Ibid.

9 Richard N. Haass, “Opinion: ‘America First’ is a Bad Deal for Everyone,” MarketWatch, May 26, 2018, available at << https://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-first-is-a-bad-deal-for-everyone-2018-03-26>>.  Accessed on January 10, 2019.

10 Alistair Cole, Franco-German Relations, New York: Routledge, 2001, p. 77.

11 Quoted in Mahmood Monshipouri, “A Real European Army: A Naïve or Prudent Idea?” Tehran Times, November 20, 2018, available at << https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/429753/A-real-European-army-A-naive-or-prudent-idea>>.  Accessed on December 24, 2018.

12 France24, “France, Germany ‘Jumping the Gun’ on EU Army: Dutch PM,” France24, November 16, 2918, available at <https://www.france24.com/en/20181116-france-germany-jumping-gun-eu-army-dutch-pm.>.  Accessed on December 23, 2018.

13 This section is based on Mahmood Monshipouri, “A Real European Army: A Naïve or Prudent Idea?” Tehran Times, November 20, 2018, available at << https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/429753/A-real-European-army-A-naive-or-prudent-idea>>.  Accessed on December 24, 2018.

14 Stephen Wertheim, “Return of the Neocons,” The New York Review of Books, January 2, 2019, available at << https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/01/02/return-of-the-neocons/>>.  Accessed on January 10, 2019.

15 Fareed Zakeria, “Populism on the March,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 6, November/December 2016, pp. 9-15; see p.9.

16 Simon Bowers, “Nike Could Owe Billions in Back Tax if New EU Probe Finds Against it,” International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), January 10, 2019, available at << https://www.icij.org/investigations/paradise-papers/nike-could-owe-billions-in-back-tax-if-new-eu-probe-finds-against-it/>>.  Accessed on January 15, 2019.

17 James Angelos, “The French Defection,” The New York Times Magazine, January 20, 2017, pp. 44-49 and 53; see p. 49.

18 Max Fisher, “Germany Struggles to Adapt to Its New Role on World Stage,” The New York Times, February 7, 2017, p. A6.

19 Fareed Zakaeria, op. cit., p. 14.

20 Beverly Gage, “Negative Energy,” The New York Times Magazine, February 5, 2017, pp. 11-13.

21 Michael D. Shear and Helene Cooper, “Trump Bars Refugees and Citizens of 7 Muslim Countries,” The New York Times, Jan. 27, 2017, available at << https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/trump-syrian-refugees.html?_r=0>>.  Accessed on February 3, 2017.

22 Ibid.

23 Ford Fessenden, Jasmine C. Lee, Sergio Pecanha, and Anjali Singhvi, “Immigrants from Banned Nations, Educated, Mostly Citizens, and Found in Every State,” The New York Times, January 30, 2017, available at << https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/01/30/us/politics/trump-immigration-ban-demographics.html?_r=0>>.  Accessed on February 3, 2017.

24 Ibid.

25 BBC News, “Trump Ban Sparks MidEast Anger and Accusations,” January 30, 2017, available at << http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38797933>>.  Accessed on February 3, 2017.

26 Parag Khanna, The Future is Asian: Commerce, Conflict and Culture in 21st Century. New York: Simon& Schuster, 2019.

27 Ibid.

28 Kai-Fu Lee, “The Artificial Intelligence Race and the New World Order,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 5, 2018, available at <<https://www.cfr.org/event/artificial-intelligence-race-and-new-world-order>.  Accessed on December 22, 2018.

29 Stephen Chen, “Beijing Plans an AI Atlantis for the South China Sea-Without a Human in Sight” Monday, November 26, 2018. available at <<https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/2174738/beijing-plans-ai-atlantis-south-china-sea-without-human-sight. Accessed on January 13, 2019.

30 Wenxian Zhang, Ilan Alon, and Chistoph Lattermann Editors, China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Changing the Rules of Globalization, London: Palgrave, 2018).  See also Zou Lei, The Political Economy of China’s Belt and Road Initiative World, Scientific Publishing Company, 2018. See also Tai Wei Lim, Henry Chan and Katherine Tseng, China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative.  Imperial College Press, 2016.

31 Steve A. Yetiv and Katerina Oskarsson, Challenged Hegemony: The United States, China, and Russia in the Persian Gulf, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2018, p. 114.

32 Julian Borger and Bastien Inzaurralde, “West ‘ignored Russian Offer in 2012 to have Syria’s Assad Step Aside,” The Guardian, September 15, 2015.  Available at <<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-in-2012-to-have-syrias-assad-step-aside>>.  Accessed on January 12, 2019.

33  Daalder and Lindsay, Op.Cit., p. 81.