فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

فصلنامه مطالعات بین‌ المللی

تأثیر تغییرات جمعیتی بر پویایی‌های امنیتی در ایران و عراق

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستخرج از رساله

نویسندگان
وحید افراسیابان 1
مرتضی نورمحمدی 2
1 دانشجوی دکتری رشته مطالعات منطقه ای، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
2 دانشیار روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی
10.22034/isj.2025.525554.2340
چکیده
جمعیت یکی از عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر امنیت است. افزایش یا کاهش جمعیت می‌تواند منجر به چالش‌های امنیتی مانند بیکاری، کمبود منابع، تراکم شهری و کاهش استانداردهای آموزشی و بهداشتی شود. علاوه بر این، تغییرات در ساختار سنی، تراکم و توزیع جمعیت بر روابط اجتماعی و اقتصادی تأثیر می‌گذارد. هدف این مقاله بررسی تأثیرات تغییرات جمعیتی بر پویایی امنیت بین ایران و عراق از طریق یک مطالعه موردی تطبیقی ​​است. سوال تحقیق این است که تغییرات جمعیتی چگونه بر پویایی امنیت بین ایران و عراق تأثیر می‌گذارد؟ در پاسخ، فرضیه تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که تغییرات جمعیتی هم به عنوان عاملی برای تعامل و همکاری و هم به عنوان عاملی برای درگیری و رقابت بین دو کشور عمل می‌کند. اگر تغییرات جمعیتی منجر به عدم تعادل در جمعیت، شهرنشینی، سن، جنسیت و مهاجرت شود، تنش‌های امنیتی تشدید می‌شود. برعکس، اگر تغییرات جمعیتی با توسعه اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی همسو باشد، زمینه را برای همکاری متقابل و افزایش امنیت در هر دو کشور فراهم می‌کند. روش تحقیق کیفی است و از تحلیل داده‌های کمی استفاده می‌کند. بر اساس ارزیابی منابع موجود، روش جمع‌آوری داده‌ها به صورت کتابخانه‌ای تعیین شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که روندهای جمعیتی در این دو کشور به طور قابل توجهی متفاوت هستند و تأثیرات متفاوتی بر ثبات داخلی و خارجی آنها دارند. بر این اساس، پیشنهاد می‌شود که تقویت همکاری بین ایران و عراق برای افزایش امنیت و ارتقای توسعه اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی در اولویت قرار گیرد و از تغییرات جمعیتی به عنوان عاملی مثبت برای رشد و پیشرفت بهره گرفته شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تغییرات جمعیتی
پویایی‌های امنیتی
خاورمیانه
ایران
عراق
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Impact of Demographic Changes on Security Dynamics in Iran and Iraq

نویسندگان English

Vahid Afrasiaban 1
Morteza Nourmohamadi 2
1 Ph.D. Student in Regional studies, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Population is one of the key factors influencing security. An increase or decrease in population can lead to security challenges such as unemployment, resource shortages, urban congestion and a decline in education and healthcare standards. Additionally, changes in age structure, density and population distribution impact social and economic relations. this article aims to examine the effects of demographic changes on security dynamics between Iran and Iraq through a comparative case study. The research question posed is How do demographic changes influence security dynamics between Iran and Iraq? In response, the research hypothesis suggests that demographic changes serve both as a factor for interaction and cooperation and as a factor for conflict and competition between the two countries. If demographic changes lead to imbalances in population, urbanization, age, gender, and migration, security tensions will escalate. Conversely, if demographic changes align with economic, political and social development, they will pave the way for mutual cooperation and enhanced security in both countries. the research method is qualitative, employing the analysis of quantitative data. Based on an evaluation of existing sources, the method of data collection has been determined as library research. the findings indicate that demographic trends in these two countries differ significantly and have various effects on their internal and external stability. Accordingly, it is suggested that fostering cooperation between Iran and Iraq should be prioritized to enhance security and promote economic, political and social development, leveraging demographic changes as a positive factor for growth and progress

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Demographic Changes
Security Dynamics
Middle East
Iran
Iraq
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