ایران و عربستان؛ بلوغ منازعه و دوگانه مذاکره - فاجعه

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار روابط بین‌الملل، دانشگاه رازی.

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد روابط بین الملل،گروه علوم سیاسی،دانشکده علوم اجتماعی،دانشگاه رازی

چکیده

در کنه تنش دامنه‌دار و مستمر ایران و عربستان به‌عنوان جنگ سرد خاورمیانه مؤلفه‌های گوناگونی ریشه دارد. این منازعه را می‌توان در چارچوب تحولات عمیق خاورمیانه و با توجه به سلسله رویدادهای دهه اخیر تا ۲۰۲۱ تبیین نمود. پیش‌تر در راهبردهایی چون امنیت منطقه‌ای ۱۹۸۶، مجمع گفت‌وگوی منطقه‌ای ۲۰۱۶، و ۲۰۱۹در ابتکار صلح هرمز در کنار اقداماتی میانجیگرانه گام‌هایی در راستای حل منازعه برداشته‌شده اما اوج‌گیری تنش تا سر حد جنگ نظامی در ۲۰۲۰نشان از نافرجامی آن‌ها دارد. حال پرسشی که به ذهن متبادر می‌شود این است که «تداوم و تعمیق منازعه میان ج.ا.ایران و عربستان در پرتو تحولات دهه اخیر خاورمیانه چگونه قابل‌تحلیل است؟» در پاسخ می‌توان مطرح کرد که «با توجه به تحولات دهه اخیر خاورمیانه ج.ا.ایران و عربستان در وضعیت بن‌بست آزاردهنده متقابل قرارگرفته و سیر آتی روابط طرفین مبتنی بر دوگانه مذاکره، فاجعه خواهد بود»با بهره از روش تحلیلی توصیفی و ابزار کتابخانه‌ای،نظریه بلوغ منازعه می‌تواند در کنار بررسی تحولات اخیر منطقه تنش و بن‌بست آزاردهنده متقابل را تبیین و به آزمون فرضیه کمک کند.هدف این نوشتار،تبیین شرایطی است که می‌تواند بهترین زمان جهت تحقق مذاکره و رسیدن به صلحی میان دو قطب قدرت منطقه باشد؛تبیینی که بر ساختاربندی تئوری بلوغ منازعه مبتنی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Iran and Saudi Arabia; Maturity of Conflict and Duality of Negotiation -Catastrophe

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ghodrat Ahmadian 1
  • Neda Kahrizi 2
1 Associate Professor at International Relations, Razi University.
2 Graduate of master of international relation, department of political science, faculty of social science, razi university
چکیده [English]

There are various components to the widespread and ongoing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the cold War of the Middle East. This conflict can be explained in the context of the profound upheavals in the Middle East and according to the series of events of recent decades until early 2021. Previously, strategies such as the 1986 Regional Security, the 2016 Regional Dialogue Forum, and most recently the Hormoz Peace Initiative, along with mediation measures, have taken steps to resolve the conflict but the escalation of the current tension indicates their failure. Now the question is that "How can the continuation and deepening of the conflict between the I.R. Iran and Saudi Arabia be analyzed? " In response, it can be stated that "Given the developments in the Middle East in the last decade, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia are in a mutually annoying deadlock and the future course of bilateral relations will be catastrophic."  Using descriptive analytical method and library tools, the theory of conflict maturity can explain the recent developments in the region and explain the mutual annoying tensions and deadlocks and help test the hypothesis. The purpose of this article is to explain the conditions that can be the best time to negotiate and achieve peace between the two poles of power in the region. An explanation based on the structuring of conflict maturity theory. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Middle East upheavels "
  • Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran"
  • conflict ripness"
  • Hurting statemate"
  • "
  • catastrophe and negotiation
  • scenario"
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