بررسی «راهبرد فشار حداکثری » ترامپ بر ایران از منظر «قدرت اجبار»

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسنده

استادیار عضو هیأت علمی گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد تاکستان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تاکستان، ایران

چکیده

با خروج آمریکا از برجام، راهبرد ترامپ بر مبنای فشار حداکثری و مستمر بر ایران با هدف دستیابی به توافقی جدید و گسترده‌تر از موضوع هسته‌ای قرار گرفت. در این راه مجموعه‌ای از ابزارهای مختلف به شکل منسجم، هدفمند و همزمان به خدمت این راهبرد در آمد. این مقاله با هدف شناخت غیر‌تقلیل‌گرایانه از رویکرد ترامپ در برابر ایران، از مفهوم «قدرت اجبار» و ابزارهای اعمال آن به‌عنوان بستری مناسب در جهت فهم مدل تحلیل و چگونگی پیشبرد راهبرد فشار حداکثری بهره می‌گیرد. سوال اصلی مقاله این است که «راهبرد فشار حداکثری ترامپ بر ایران در چارچوب چه مدلی قابل تحلیل است و چگونه این راهبرد عمل کرده است؟ چه ارتباطی میان اجزا این راهبرد وجود دارد؟ نقاط قوت و ضعف آنها چیست؟ برای پاسخ‌گویی به این پرسش، روش تحقیق مقاله، روش تحلیلی و توصیفی است و مهم‌ترین «محدودیت پژوهش» نیز محرمانه بودن داده‌های آماری به ‌واسطه شرایط تحریمی بوده است. مطابق نتیجه کلی مقاله، آمریکا علاوه بر اقدام به تحریم‌های گسترده در حوزه‌های اقتصادی، انرژی و تسلیحاتی، به رهگیری دریایی، حمایت آشکارتر از اپوزیسیون و حملات گسترده‌تر سایبری دست زده است تا این اقدامات توامان را جایگزین جنگ کند. هر چند به‌رغم برخی آسیب‌های وارده، تدابیر ایران تاکنون موجب عدم تحقق اهداف ترامپ شده است، اما احتمال استفاده بی‌محاباتر و خارج از قاعده ترامپ از این ابزارها قابل پیش بینی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of Trump`s Strategy of “Maximum Pressure ” on Iran from “The Power to Coerce” Perspective

نویسنده [English]

  • Mahdi Alikhani
Assistant Prof. of International Relations Dep. Takestan Branch. Islamic Azad University, Takestan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Since the US withdrew from “The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”, commonly known as Iran Nuclear Deal, Trump’s administration’s campaign has been constant maximum pressure in order for Iran to sign a new deal beyond the nuclear issue.Hence, a combination of different integrated, targeted, and simultaneous means have been deployed. In this manuscript, in order to gain a non-reductionist understanding of Trump’s approach against Iran, the concept of “power of coerce”, and its means will be utilized. This concept will provide us a convenient setting to understand the model, and to analyze how such maximum pressure campaign progresses. According to this manuscript, the US, in addition to comprehensive sanctions in the areas of economy, arms and energy, has exploited other means such maritime intercept, support for adversaries’ opponents, and widespread offensive cyber operations against Iran in an attempt to substitute these simultaneous actions for a war. Nevertheless, despite the imposed damages, Iran’s counteractions have frustrated Trump’s objectives. However,assertive and out-of-order exploitation of the means by the US is predictable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • The Power to Coerce
  • Maximum Pressure Strategy
  • Financial Sanctions
  • Maritime Intercept
  • Offensive Cyber Operations

مراجع

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