بحران هسته‌ای کره شمالی و سیاست‌های نئو رئالیستی دولتِ ترامپ موشکافیِ متغیرهای سطح تحلیل خُرد

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی- پژوهشی مستقل

نویسنده

استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، رشت، دانشگاه گیلان.

چکیده

چکیده:
عدم کنترل فعالیت هسته‌ای کره شمالی و عدم توانایی در مدیریت تولید موشک‌های قاره‌پیما و بالستیک کره شمالی موجب احساس ناامنی کشورها در نظام بین‌الملل شده است. امریکا باروی کار آوردن چهل و پنجمین رئیس‌جمهورش بارقه‌های امیدی مبهم در حل این بحران آفریده است. در این رهنمود نوع تعامل و کارکرد دونالد ترامپ با رهبران کره شمالی این سؤال اساسی را ایجاد نمود: کنش دولت ترامپ در قبال بحران هسته‌ای کره شمالی و واکنش رهبریت کره شمالی چگونه قابل‌تحلیل است؟ متغیرهای سطح خُرد تحلیل در مورد چالش‌های شخصیتی رهبران دو کشور این نتایج کلی را نشان می‌دهد که تلاش‌های سیاسی آن‌ها برای پایان دادن به بحران هسته‌ای همچنان ادامه‌دار خواهد بود؛ و احتمالاً دولت ترامپ قادر به مدیریت بحران کره شمالی نخواهد شد. و فضای چانه‌زنی مستمر باقی خواهد ماند؛ از این رو، ترامپ نخواهد توانست اراده‌ی رهبران کره شمالی و کیم جونگ اون را در دست گیرد؛ این مقاله از منظر جیمز روزنا به فرضیهِ جواب پرداخته و به شکل تبیینی و با روش تحلیلی- توصیفی نگارش شده است؛ و جمع‌آوری اطلاعاتِ آن اسنادی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Donald Trump's Neo-Realist Policies, Scrutiny of Micro-level Variables

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohammad Hossein Esmaeili Sangari
Political Science Dep, Human Faculty, Rasht,The University of Guilan.
چکیده [English]

North Korea's lack of control over its nuclear activities, and subsequently its inability to manage the production of inter-continental and ballistic missiles, has made countries feel insecure in the international system. The United States failed to denuclearize North Korea by adopting methods of intimidation and negotiation prior to Donald Trump's presidency. In this guide, the nature of Donald Trump's interaction with the North Korean leaders has raised the following fundamental question: How can the Trump administration's response to the North Korean nuclear crisis and the reaction of the North Korean leadership be analyzed? Micro-level variables on the personality challenges of the two countries' leaders show the general results that their political efforts to end the nuclear crisis will continue and the Trump administration will not probably be able to manage the North Korean crisis and the bargaining space will remain continuous; Hence, Trump will not be able to take the will of the North Korean leaders and Kim Jong Un. This article deals with the answer hypothesis from the perspective of James Rosena and is written in an explanatory and analytical-descriptive manner and the collection of that information is documentary.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Level of Microanalysis"
  • "Donald Trump"
  • "Kim Jong- Un"
  • "Nuclear Crisis"
  • "North Korea"
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